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Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 21:16

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. EIGHTEEN PALMS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with SPLENDID LIVING second and BEAUTY MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SPLENDID LIVING finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 EIGHTEEN PALMS Closed strongly CP-/B1 1.39.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C S Shum 8 11.0 1-1/4
2 4 SPLENDID LIVING Led early TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 2 2.4 1-1/4
3 7 BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly B-/SR2/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 5 32.0 1-3/4
4 2 HOLY POWER B/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 5.4 1-3/4
5 10 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 15.0 2
6 8 HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly B A Badel · P C Ng 11 21.0 2
7 1 STORM LEGEND K H Chan · C Fownes 4 9.8 2-1/4
8 6 STURDY RUBY TT H Bowman · K L Man 9 7.7 3-1/4
9 9 JOYFUL GENIUS L Ferraris · D J Hall 1 11.0 4-3/4
10 11 NOBLE STEED M F Poon · K W Lui 7 36.0 5-1/2
11 12 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT V Borges · C H Yip 3 40.0 5-1/2
12 5 RAINBOW LIGHT B-/V1/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 69.0 16-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. EIGHTEEN PALMS2. SPLENDID LIVING+1.25L3. BEAUTY MISSION+1.75L4. HOLY POWER+1.75L5. LIFELINE VISION+2L6. HAPPY ANGEL+2L7. STORM LEGEND+2.25L8. STURDY RUBY+3.25L9. JOYFUL GENIUS+4.75L10. NOBLE STEED+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick JOYFUL GENIUS (17.2%) finished 9th — the winner EIGHTEEN PALMS was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 JOYFUL GENIUS 17.2% 5.82 9
2 4 SPLENDID LIVING 15.2% 6.59 2
3 6 STURDY RUBY 14.3% 6.99 8
4 2 HOLY POWER 14.3% 7.00 4
5 8 HAPPY ANGEL 8.0% 12.49 6
6 10 LIFELINE VISION 7.2% 13.82 5
7 1 STORM LEGEND 5.9% 17.03 7
8 3 EIGHTEEN PALMS 5.5% 18.31 1
9 7 BEAUTY MISSION 4.9% 20.56 3
10 11 NOBLE STEED 3.2% 31.11 10
11 5 RAINBOW LIGHT 2.5% 39.91 12
12 12 FLASH FAMOUS 1.9% 52.74 11
JOYFUL GENIUSSPLENDID LIVINGSTURDY RUBYHOLY POWERHAPPY ANGELLIFELINE VISIONSTORM LEGENDEIGHTEEN PALMS — wonBEAUTY MISSIONNOBLE STEEDRAINBOW LIGHTFLASH FAMOUS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 113.5

PLACE

3 31

4 12

7 84

QUINELLA

3,4 161.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 63.5

3,7 510.5

4,7 144.5

FORECAST

3,4 450

TIERCE

3,4,7 10,704

TRIO

3,4,7 1,637

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 1,176

QUARTET

3,4,7,2 35,303

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 27

A3

5TH DOUBLE

2/3 335

2/4 26