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Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 11 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY Wire to wire B/TT 1.40.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W Y So 4 17.0 SH
2 0 CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly B/H K Teetan · K W Lui 8 10.0 SH
3 0 OVER THE MOON B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 3.0 2-1/4
4 0 CHARIZARD B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 1 5.6 3-1/4
5 0 HO HO JUNIOR Closed strongly C Y Ho · D J Hall 3 10.0 4-1/2
6 0 FORTUNE WINNER Closed strongly XB/TT V Borges · R Gibson 11 82.0 5-3/4
7 0 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang 2 27.0 6-3/4
8 0 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 10 8.1 7-1/4
9 0 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B- H Bentley · C H Yip 12 19.0 7-1/4
10 0 TYCOON JEWELLERY H/XB/TT A Badel · J Size 5 8.5 7-1/2
12 0 MIGHTY STAR B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 9 76.0 10-1/4
— 0 TO INFINITY B/TT Y L Chung · J Richards — 10.0 8

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FAITHFUL TRINITY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with CORDYCEPS ONE second and OVER THE MOON third. The winner led throughout. The 3.0 favourite OVER THE MOON finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAITHFUL TRINITY—2. CORDYCEPS ONE+0.1L3. OVER THE MOON+2.25L4. CHARIZARD+3.25L5. HO HO JUNIOR+4.5L6. FORTUNE WINNER+5.75L7. GOLDEN MISSION+6.75L8. JOLLY HONOUR+7.25L9. GLORIOUS LOVER+7.25L10. TYCOON JEWELLERY+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TYCOON JEWELLERY (14.0%) finished 10th — the winner FAITHFUL TRINITY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 TYCOON JEWELLERY 14.0% 7.14 10
2 0 HO HO JUNIOR 11.9% 8.37 5
3 0 CORDYCEPS ONE 11.4% 8.79 2
4 0 OVER THE MOON 10.5% 9.50 3
5 0 CHARIZARD 10.1% 9.93 4
6 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 9.2% 10.84 1
7 0 JOLLY HONOUR 8.4% 11.91 8
8 0 GOLDEN MISSION 8.0% 12.47 7
9 0 TO INFINITY 7.3% 13.61 —
10 0 GLORIOUS LOVER 5.9% 17.03 9
11 0 MIGHTY STAR 2.1% 46.63 12
12 0 FORTUNE WINNER 1.1% 92.07 6
TYCOON JEWELLERYHO HO JUNIORCORDYCEPS ONEOVER THE MOONCHARIZARDFAITHFUL TRINITY — wonJOLLY HONOURGOLDEN MISSIONTO INFINITYGLORIOUS LOVERMIGHTY STARFORTUNE WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 172.5

PLACE

1 35

3 15

10 42

QUINELLA

1,10 739

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 81.5

1,10 208.5

3,10 99

FORECAST

10,1 1,404

TIERCE

10,1,3 6,532

TRIO

1,3,10 986

FIRST 4

1,3,5,10 480

QUARTET

10,1,3,5 17,361

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/1 22.5

4/10 320

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 36