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Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FAITHFUL TRINITY, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W Y So, won by SH, with CORDYCEPS ONE second and OVER THE MOON third. The winner led throughout. The 3.0 favourite OVER THE MOON finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.40.68
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 FAITHFUL TRINITY Wire to wire B/TT 1.40.68 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W Y So 4 17.0 SH
2 1 CORDYCEPS ONE Closed strongly B/H K Teetan · K W Lui 8 10.0 SH
3 3 OVER THE MOON B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 7 3.0 2-1/4
4 5 CHARIZARD B/TT L Ferraris · A T Millard 1 5.6 3-1/4
5 9 HO HO JUNIOR Closed strongly C Y Ho · D J Hall 3 10.0 4-1/2
6 12 FORTUNE WINNER Closed strongly XB/TT V Borges · R Gibson 11 82.0 5-3/4
7 11 GOLDEN MISSION B/TT L Hewitson · C W Chang 2 27.0 6-3/4
8 6 JOLLY HONOUR B/TT Z Purton · Y S Tsui 10 8.1 7-1/4
9 7 GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B- H Bentley · C H Yip 12 19.0 7-1/4
10 4 TYCOON JEWELLERY H/XB/TT A Badel · J Size 5 8.5 7-1/2
11 2 TO INFINITY B/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 6 10.0 8
12 8 MIGHTY STAR B/H/TT C L Chau · A S Cruz 9 76.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAITHFUL TRINITY2. CORDYCEPS ONE+0.1L3. OVER THE MOON+2.25L4. CHARIZARD+3.25L5. HO HO JUNIOR+4.5L6. FORTUNE WINNER+5.75L7. GOLDEN MISSION+6.75L8. JOLLY HONOUR+7.25L9. GLORIOUS LOVER+7.25L10. TYCOON JEWELLERY+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TYCOON JEWELLERY (14.0%) finished 10th — the winner FAITHFUL TRINITY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TYCOON JEWELLERY 14.0% 7.14 10
2 9 HO HO JUNIOR 11.9% 8.37 5
3 1 CORDYCEPS ONE 11.4% 8.79 2
4 3 OVER THE MOON 10.5% 9.50 3
5 5 CHARIZARD 10.1% 9.93 4
6 10 FAITHFUL TRINITY 9.2% 10.84 1
7 6 JOLLY HONOUR 8.4% 11.91 8
8 11 GOLDEN MISSION 8.0% 12.47 7
9 2 TO INFINITY 7.3% 13.61 11
10 7 GLORIOUS LOVER 5.9% 17.03 9
11 8 MIGHTY STAR 2.1% 46.63 12
12 12 FORTUNE WINNER 1.1% 92.07 6
TYCOON JEWELLERYHO HO JUNIORCORDYCEPS ONEOVER THE MOONCHARIZARDFAITHFUL TRINITY — wonJOLLY HONOURGOLDEN MISSIONTO INFINITYGLORIOUS LOVERMIGHTY STARFORTUNE WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 172.5

PLACE

1 35

3 15

10 42

QUINELLA

1,10 739

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 81.5

1,10 208.5

3,10 99

FORECAST

10,1 1,404

TIERCE

10,1,3 6,532

TRIO

1,3,10 986

FIRST 4

1,3,5,10 480

QUARTET

10,1,3,5 17,361

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/1 22.5

4/10 320

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 36