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Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 19:48

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 ONE FOR ALL B/TT 1.09.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · R Gibson 9 8.6 1
2 0 WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K Teetan · L Ho 4 2.9 1
3 0 ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 1 7.4 1
4 0 TELECOM SPEED H Bowman · Y S Tsui 12 10.0 2-3/4
5 0 CHARMING STEED TT C Wong · C Fownes 5 7.0 2-3/4
6 0 PRIME MORTAR CP/XB/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 5.2 3-1/4
7 0 SPICY SO SMART H/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng 7 21.0 3-3/4
8 0 DIAMOND FLARE B A Badel · P F Yiu 2 18.0 3-3/4
9 0 SEE U AGAIN C L Chau · C S Shum 10 21.0 5-1/4
10 0 AMAZING TRAVIS H/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 3 88.0 6-3/4
11 0 NOBLE ACE TT V Borges · J Size 6 54.0 7-1/2
12 0 ABOVE ALL H/XB H Bentley · A T Millard 11 72.0 9-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ONE FOR ALL, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by R Gibson, won by 1, with WOOD ON FIRE second and ISLAND SURPRISE third. The 2.9 favourite WOOD ON FIRE finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ONE FOR ALL—2. WOOD ON FIRE+1L3. ISLAND SURPRISE+1L4. TELECOM SPEED+2.75L5. CHARMING STEED+2.75L6. PRIME MORTAR+3.25L7. SPICY SO SMART+3.75L8. DIAMOND FLARE+3.75L9. SEE U AGAIN+5.25L10. AMAZING TRAVIS+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PRIME MORTAR (29.6%) finished 6th — the winner ONE FOR ALL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 PRIME MORTAR 29.6% 3.37 6
2 0 TELECOM SPEED 12.5% 7.98 4
3 0 WOOD ON FIRE 11.4% 8.75 2
4 0 ISLAND SURPRISE 11.0% 9.12 3
5 0 ONE FOR ALL 10.1% 9.91 1
6 0 CHARMING STEED 8.3% 12.02 5
7 0 SEE U AGAIN 5.0% 20.11 9
8 0 SPICY SO SMART 4.1% 24.60 7
9 0 NOBLE ACE 3.2% 31.55 11
10 0 ABOVE ALL 2.1% 47.35 12
11 0 DIAMOND FLARE 1.8% 56.48 8
12 0 AMAZING TRAVIS 0.9% 106.55 10
PRIME MORTARTELECOM SPEEDWOOD ON FIREISLAND SURPRISEONE FOR ALL — wonCHARMING STEEDSEE U AGAINSPICY SO SMARTNOBLE ACEABOVE ALLDIAMOND FLAREAMAZING TRAVIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 86

PLACE

5 13.5

9 23.5

10 29.5

QUINELLA

5,10 126

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 45

5,10 55.5

9,10 91.5

FORECAST

10,5 329

TIERCE

10,5,9 2,040

TRIO

5,9,10 292

FIRST 4

3,5,9,10 411

QUARTET

10,5,9,3 11,484

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,10/5,9,10 18,028

2ND DOUBLE

10/5 94.5

10/10 990

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 32.5

A1 —