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Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 19:48

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ONE FOR ALL, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by R Gibson, won by 1, with WOOD ON FIRE second and ISLAND SURPRISE third. The 2.9 favourite WOOD ON FIRE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ONE FOR ALL B/TT 1.09.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · R Gibson 9 8.6 1
2 5 WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K Teetan · L Ho 4 2.9 1
3 9 ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 1 7.4 1
4 3 TELECOM SPEED H Bowman · Y S Tsui 12 10.0 2-3/4
5 12 CHARMING STEED TT C Wong · C Fownes 5 7.0 2-3/4
6 1 PRIME MORTAR CP/XB/TT K C Leung · K H Ting 8 5.2 3-1/4
7 8 SPICY SO SMART H/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng 7 21.0 3-3/4
8 2 DIAMOND FLARE B A Badel · P F Yiu 2 18.0 3-3/4
9 4 SEE U AGAIN C L Chau · C S Shum 10 21.0 5-1/4
10 7 AMAZING TRAVIS H/TT C Y Ho · W Y So 3 88.0 6-3/4
11 11 NOBLE ACE TT V Borges · J Size 6 54.0 7-1/2
12 6 ABOVE ALL H/XB H Bentley · A T Millard 11 72.0 9-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ONE FOR ALL2. WOOD ON FIRE+1L3. ISLAND SURPRISE+1L4. TELECOM SPEED+2.75L5. CHARMING STEED+2.75L6. PRIME MORTAR+3.25L7. SPICY SO SMART+3.75L8. DIAMOND FLARE+3.75L9. SEE U AGAIN+5.25L10. AMAZING TRAVIS+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick PRIME MORTAR (29.6%) finished 6th — the winner ONE FOR ALL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PRIME MORTAR 29.6% 3.37 6
2 3 TELECOM SPEED 12.5% 7.98 4
3 5 WOOD ON FIRE 11.4% 8.75 2
4 9 ISLAND SURPRISE 11.0% 9.12 3
5 10 ONE FOR ALL 10.1% 9.91 1
6 12 CHARMING STEED 8.3% 12.02 5
7 4 SEE U AGAIN 5.0% 20.11 9
8 8 SPICY SO SMART 4.1% 24.60 7
9 11 NOBLE ACE 3.2% 31.55 11
10 6 ABOVE ALL 2.1% 47.35 12
11 2 DIAMOND FLARE 1.8% 56.48 8
12 7 AMAZING TRAVIS 0.9% 106.55 10
PRIME MORTARTELECOM SPEEDWOOD ON FIREISLAND SURPRISEONE FOR ALL — wonCHARMING STEEDSEE U AGAINSPICY SO SMARTNOBLE ACEABOVE ALLDIAMOND FLAREAMAZING TRAVIS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 86

PLACE

5 13.5

9 23.5

10 29.5

QUINELLA

5,10 126

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 45

5,10 55.5

9,10 91.5

FORECAST

10,5 329

TIERCE

10,5,9 2,040

TRIO

5,9,10 292

FIRST 4

3,5,9,10 411

QUARTET

10,5,9,3 11,484

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,10/5,9,10 18,028

2ND DOUBLE

10/5 94.5

10/10 990

3 PICK 1

A3 32.5

A1

A2