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Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. ATOMIC ENERGY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with G ONE EXCELLENT second and NICETOBEMET third. The 2.7 favourite G ONE EXCELLENT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.57.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 ATOMIC ENERGY TT 0.57.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 5 6.0 N
2 4 G ONE EXCELLENT B/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 9 2.7 N
3 10 NICETOBEMET CP Z Purton · F C Lor 7 8.9 1
4 3 SUPER COMMANDER V/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng 1 7.7 1-1/2
5 12 ACE TALENT H/PC/TT A Badel · C Fownes 11 17.0 1-3/4
6 11 DIAMOND SOARS H/P/TT K Teetan · P F Yiu 4 6.3 2
7 1 SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT L Currie · J Size 6 30.0 2
8 9 HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 6.8 2-1/4
9 8 GOOD VIEW GLORY C L Chau · C H Yip 10 70.0 2-1/4
10 5 LIFE IS GOOD H/XB/TT H Bentley · R Gibson 3 41.0 3-3/4
11 6 FASTPASS B1 H N Wong · K W Lui 8 106.0 10-1/2
7 SERGEANT PEPPER H Bowman · Y S Tsui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ATOMIC ENERGY2. G ONE EXCELLENT+0.05L3. NICETOBEMET+1L4. SUPER COMMANDER+1.5L5. ACE TALENT+1.75L6. DIAMOND SOARS+2L7. SAVVY DELIGHT+2L8. HEARTY WISH+2.25L9. GOOD VIEW GLORY+2.25L10. LIFE IS GOOD+3.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick G ONE EXCELLENT (19.4%) finished 2nd — the winner ATOMIC ENERGY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 G ONE EXCELLENT 19.4% 5.15 2
2 2 ATOMIC ENERGY 16.8% 5.94 1
3 11 DIAMOND SOARS 16.6% 6.01 6
4 9 HEARTY WISH 15.2% 6.56 8
5 10 NICETOBEMET 10.1% 9.93 3
6 12 ACE TALENT 7.3% 13.79 5
7 3 SUPER COMMANDER 5.9% 17.06 4
8 1 SAVVY DELIGHT 3.5% 28.38 7
9 6 FASTPASS 2.2% 44.72 11
10 5 LIFE IS GOOD 1.5% 66.04 10
11 8 GOOD VIEW GLORY 1.4% 70.81 9
G ONE EXCELLENTATOMIC ENERGY — wonDIAMOND SOARSHEARTY WISHNICETOBEMETACE TALENTSUPER COMMANDERSAVVY DELIGHTFASTPASSLIFE IS GOODGOOD VIEW GLORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 60

PLACE

2 18

4 13

10 30

QUINELLA

2,4 74

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 30

2,10 104

4,10 58.5

FORECAST

2,4 173

TIERCE

2,4,10 1,728

TRIO

2,4,10 200

FIRST 4

2,3,4,10 405

QUARTET

2,4,10,3 8,272

All pools (3 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,9/10>2,4,7 6,639

3 PICK 1

A1 19

A2

A3

4TH DOUBLE

9/2 242.5

9/4,7 31