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Happy Valley · 2023-04-12 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. XPONENTIAL, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D J Whyte, won by SH, with ACT OF FAITH second and MAGNIAC third. The 2.9 favourite MAGNIAC finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 XPONENTIAL B/TT 1.09.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 6.0 SH
2 12 ACT OF FAITH K Teetan · J Size 9 11.0 SH
3 8 MAGNIAC V/TT Z Purton · J Richards 4 2.9 N
4 5 PHOENIX LIGHT H/TT1 H Bowman · C H Yip 7 10.0 1
5 10 THE RUNNER V L Ferraris · K H Ting 1 13.0 1-1/4
6 3 HEROIC MASTER H/P/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 26.0 1-1/2
7 6 JUMBO LEGEND H/PC/TT L Currie · C Fownes 10 25.0 2
8 9 COMPASSION SPIRIT B M F Poon · K L Man 2 23.0 2
9 7 LESLIE B K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 25.0 3
10 2 GOLD GOLD BABY TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 3.8 3
11 1 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING TT A Badel · A S Cruz 6 38.0 4
12 11 TELECOM SPIRIT B H Bentley · Y S Tsui 12 179.0 7-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. XPONENTIAL2. ACT OF FAITH+0.1L3. MAGNIAC+0.05L4. PHOENIX LIGHT+1L5. THE RUNNER+1.25L6. HEROIC MASTER+1.5L7. JUMBO LEGEND+2L8. COMPASSION SPIRIT+2L9. LESLIE+3L10. GOLD GOLD BABY+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MAGNIAC (28.8%) finished 3rd — the winner XPONENTIAL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 MAGNIAC 28.8% 3.47 3
2 2 GOLD GOLD BABY 17.1% 5.85 10
3 4 XPONENTIAL 9.1% 10.96 1
4 12 ACT OF FAITH 9.1% 11.03 2
5 5 PHOENIX LIGHT 8.2% 12.14 4
6 3 HEROIC MASTER 5.9% 17.01 6
7 9 COMPASSION SPIRIT 4.8% 20.67 8
8 7 LESLIE 4.7% 21.06 9
9 6 JUMBO LEGEND 3.9% 25.55 7
10 1 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 3.9% 25.97 11
11 10 THE RUNNER 3.7% 27.25 5
12 11 TELECOM SPIRIT 0.7% 136.32 12
MAGNIACGOLD GOLD BABYXPONENTIAL — wonACT OF FAITHPHOENIX LIGHTHEROIC MASTERCOMPASSION SPIRITLESLIEJUMBO LEGENDYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGTHE RUNNERTELECOM SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 60

PLACE

4 19

8 14.5

12 30.5

QUINELLA

4,12 262.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,8 38.5

4,12 76

8,12 75.5

FORECAST

4,12 373

TIERCE

4,12,8 2,022

TRIO

4,8,12 370

FIRST 4

4,5,8,12 718

QUARTET

4,12,8,5 20,963

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 23.5

A2

A3

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

8,10,11/4,8,12 3,627

8TH DOUBLE

11/4 411

11/12 97.5

SIX UP

6,9/2,4,7/3,4/5,10/8,11/4,12 726

9/2/3/10/11/4 1,017,704

11 [D J Whyte]

1 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

10/11/4 4,429

10/11/12 1,126