Sha Tin · 2023-04-23 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 7 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-23 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HAVA NAGEELA, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with ERIMO second and YES WE CAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.02

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	HAVA NAGEELA Closed strongly B 1.39.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · F C Lor	S De Sousa	F C Lor	5	134 lb	1.8	2
2	4	ERIMO Closed strongly B-/PC1 A Badel · J Size	A Badel	J Size	1	130 lb	6.9	2
3	7	YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung	K Teetan	T P Yung	7	119 lb	11.0	4
4	3	SO WE JOY Closed strongly H-/XB/TT H Bowman · C W Chang	H Bowman	C W Chang	6	134 lb	7.5	4-1/2
5	6	SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui	Y L Chung	K W Lui	2	114 lb	11.0	5-1/4
6	5	SECRET VISION CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	4	128 lb	19.0	9-3/4
7	1	ROCKET SPADE XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	3	135 lb	6.1	11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick ROCKET SPADE (24.5%) finished 7th — the winner HAVA NAGEELA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	ROCKET SPADE	24.5%	4.09	7	6.1
2	5	SECRET VISION	23.5%	4.26	6	19.0
3	2	HAVA NAGEELA	21.1%	4.74	1	1.8
4	3	SO WE JOY	9.2%	10.84	4	7.5
5	7	YES WE CAN	8.1%	12.36	3	11.0
6	4	ERIMO	6.9%	14.40	2	6.9
7	6	SKYEY SUPREME	6.6%	15.04	5	11.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 18

PLACE

2 10.1

4 21

7 21.5

QUINELLA

2,4 56.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 26.5

2,7 30

4,7 70

FORECAST

2,4 116

TIERCE

2,4,7 508

TRIO

2,4,7 110

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 106

QUARTET

2,4,7,3 1,226

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 14

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99