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Sha Tin · 2023-04-23 · 13:01

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 7 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.02
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 HAVA NAGEELA Closed strongly B 1.39.02 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · F C Lor 5 1.8 2
2 0 ERIMO Closed strongly B-/PC1 A Badel · J Size 1 6.9 2
3 0 YES WE CAN Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 7 11.0 4
4 0 SO WE JOY Closed strongly H-/XB/TT H Bowman · C W Chang 6 7.5 4-1/2
5 0 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui 2 11.0 5-1/4
6 0 SECRET VISION CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 4 19.0 9-3/4
7 0 ROCKET SPADE XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 3 6.1 11-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-23 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. HAVA NAGEELA, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by F C Lor, won by 2, with ERIMO second and YES WE CAN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HAVA NAGEELA—2. ERIMO+2L3. YES WE CAN+4L4. SO WE JOY+4.5L5. SKYEY SUPREME+5.25L6. SECRET VISION+9.75L7. ROCKET SPADE+11.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROCKET SPADE (24.5%) finished 7th — the winner HAVA NAGEELA was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ROCKET SPADE 24.5% 4.09 7
2 0 SECRET VISION 23.5% 4.26 6
3 0 HAVA NAGEELA 21.1% 4.74 1
4 0 SO WE JOY 9.2% 10.84 4
5 0 YES WE CAN 8.1% 12.36 3
6 0 ERIMO 6.9% 14.40 2
7 0 SKYEY SUPREME 6.6% 15.04 5
ROCKET SPADESECRET VISIONHAVA NAGEELA — wonSO WE JOYYES WE CANERIMOSKYEY SUPREME

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 18

PLACE

2 10.1

4 21

7 21.5

QUINELLA

2,4 56.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 26.5

2,7 30

4,7 70

FORECAST

2,4 116

TIERCE

2,4,7 508

TRIO

2,4,7 110

FIRST 4

2,3,4,7 106

QUARTET

2,4,7,3 1,226

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 14

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive — US$299 All results since 1977 as data