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Sha Tin · 2023-04-23 · 16:07

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BLUE MARLIN, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 3/4, with REGENT GLORY second and D STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite GALVANIC finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 BLUE MARLIN Closed strongly H/CP1 1.22.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 7.8 3/4
2 12 REGENT GLORY K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 28.0 3/4
3 6 D STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 22.0 2
4 5 LOST CHILD Closed strongly H Bowman · C W Chang 13 5.1 2-1/2
5 4 SINGAPORE SUNSHINE Closed strongly BO/XB R Maia · A T Millard 14 100.0 3-1/4
6 8 DIVINE ERA TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 5 24.0 3-1/2
7 7 GALVANIC CP-/TT Z Purton · J Richards 2 2.4 3-3/4
8 11 HERO ICON Closed strongly TT M F Poon · K L Man 9 61.0 4
9 13 VANTASTIC CHOICE B1 S De Sousa · C H Yip 11 10.0 4-1/2
10 1 ALL RICHES Led early V-/CP2 K C Leung · P F Yiu 3 7.9 5-1/4
11 2 SILVER HAMMER CP A Badel · R Gibson 10 25.0 5-1/4
12 10 DIAMOND FOREVER C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 102.0 5-1/2
13 14 UNITED ENDEAVORS H L Hewitson · L Ho 6 64.0 6-3/4
14 3 CLASSIC MOON CP/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 7 27.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BLUE MARLIN2. REGENT GLORY+0.75L3. D STAR+2L4. LOST CHILD+2.5L5. SINGAPORE SUNSHINE+3.25L6. DIVINE ERA+3.5L7. GALVANIC+3.75L8. HERO ICON+4L9. VANTASTIC CHOICE+4.5L10. ALL RICHES+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GALVANIC (31.1%) finished 7th — the winner BLUE MARLIN was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 GALVANIC 31.1% 3.22 7
2 5 LOST CHILD 15.4% 6.50 4
3 6 D STAR 6.7% 14.86 3
4 1 ALL RICHES 6.2% 16.25 10
5 2 SILVER HAMMER 5.9% 16.93 11
6 12 REGENT GLORY 5.9% 17.02 2
7 9 BLUE MARLIN 5.8% 17.25 1
8 8 DIVINE ERA 5.4% 18.48 6
9 3 CLASSIC MOON 4.3% 23.31 14
10 13 VANTASTIC CHOICE 4.0% 25.14 9
11 14 UNITED ENDEAVORS 3.6% 27.98 13
12 11 HERO ICON 3.5% 28.61 8
13 10 DIAMOND FOREVER 1.2% 84.30 12
14 4 SINGAPORE SUNSHINE 1.2% 86.94 5
GALVANICLOST CHILDD STARALL RICHESSILVER HAMMERREGENT GLORYBLUE MARLIN — wonDIVINE ERACLASSIC MOONVANTASTIC CHOICEUNITED ENDEAVORSHERO ICONDIAMOND FOREVERSINGAPORE SUNSHINE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 78.5

PLACE

6 58.5

9 22.5

12 64

QUINELLA

9,12 1,250.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 208.5

6,12 720

9,12 343

FORECAST

9,12 2,004

TIERCE

9,12,6 27,024

TRIO

6,9,12 6,709

FIRST 4

5,6,9,12 5,844

QUARTET

9,12,6,5 150,310

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A3

A2

6TH DOUBLE

7/9 344

7/12 409