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Sha Tin · 2023-04-23 · 13:31

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD (AWT) 1650m 10 runners

Result

Official · 1.41.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 IRON WILL Closed strongly H/TT 1.41.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C S Shum 7 27.0 N
2 0 FAST BUCK Led early P1 A Badel · J Size 2 13.0 N
3 0 AMAZING TEENS H/P/TT H Bowman · J Size 1 2.6 1
4 0 ASIAN ONE Closed strongly PC/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 5 2.9 1
5 0 BILLIONAIRE SECRET Closed strongly H/PC/XB C Y Ho · P C Ng 10 7.2 1-3/4
6 0 DARCI LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT L Hewitson · K W Lui 6 18.0 2-3/4
7 0 FORTUNE PRESIDENT M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 4 16.0 3-1/4
8 0 HIGH CLOUD B/XB H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 15.0 4-3/4
9 0 KING'S CAPITAL B- Y L Chung · D A Hayes 9 26.0 4-3/4
10 0 NUNCHUKS TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 3 34.0 8-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-23 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. IRON WILL, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with FAST BUCK second and AMAZING TEENS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite AMAZING TEENS finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. IRON WILL—2. FAST BUCK+0.05L3. AMAZING TEENS+1L4. ASIAN ONE+1L5. BILLIONAIRE SECRET+1.75L6. DARCI LEGEND+2.75L7. FORTUNE PRESIDENT+3.25L8. HIGH CLOUD+4.75L9. KING'S CAPITAL+4.75L10. NUNCHUKS+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick AMAZING TEENS (25.1%) finished 3rd — the winner IRON WILL was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 AMAZING TEENS 25.1% 3.99 3
2 0 ASIAN ONE 23.1% 4.33 4
3 0 BILLIONAIRE SECRET 13.9% 7.17 5
4 0 IRON WILL 8.1% 12.40 1
5 0 FAST BUCK 7.3% 13.75 2
6 0 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 7.0% 14.32 7
7 0 NUNCHUKS 6.6% 15.12 10
8 0 KING'S CAPITAL 5.2% 19.32 9
9 0 HIGH CLOUD 2.6% 38.59 8
10 0 DARCI LEGEND 1.2% 85.14 6
AMAZING TEENSASIAN ONEBILLIONAIRE SECRETIRON WILL — wonFAST BUCKFORTUNE PRESIDENTNUNCHUKSKING'S CAPITALHIGH CLOUDDARCI LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 276

PLACE

1 13.5

3 45.5

9 58.5

QUINELLA

3,9 1,835

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 61

1,9 104.5

3,9 420.5

FORECAST

9,3 5,876

TIERCE

9,3,1 14,004

TRIO

1,3,9 779

FIRST 4

1,3,8,9 605

QUARTET

9,3,1,8 33,989

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/3 86

2/9 532

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,7/1,3,9 31,421

3 PICK 1

A3 39

A1 —

A2 —