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Sha Tin · 2023-04-23 · 17:13

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2023-04-23 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY CHAMP, ridden by H Bentley and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with BEAUTY INSPIRE second and SOLID IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite BEAUTY INSPIRE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 BEAUTY CHAMP Closed strongly P-/H/XB/TT 1.21.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 20.0 1/2
2 5 BEAUTY INSPIRE Closed strongly Z Purton · J Size 3 2.5 1/2
3 4 SOLID IMPACT Closed strongly H Bowman · D J Hall 8 5.7 2-3/4
4 3 CALIFORNIA VOCE Closed strongly TT1 M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 11.0 3-1/2
5 13 TOP TOP TEA Y L Chung · C H Yip 1 15.0 4
6 7 SKY FOREVER Closed strongly B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 14 50.0 4
7 6 RUN RUN BUDDY Led early CP/TT1 K C Leung · F C Lor 11 5.6 4-1/4
8 9 PODIUM Closed strongly XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 48.0 5-3/4
9 2 WINNER METHOD TT M F Poon · C S Shum 9 16.0 7
10 8 LESLIE Closed strongly B A Badel · P F Yiu 7 29.0 7-1/4
11 11 ARIEL CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 10 17.0 8-1/2
12 14 G LINER SR C Wong · T P Yung 5 194.0 9-1/2
13 1 KIMBERLEY L Hewitson · A T Millard 4 77.0 9-3/4
14 10 ENDEARED L Currie · J Size 13 17.0 14-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY CHAMP2. BEAUTY INSPIRE+0.5L3. SOLID IMPACT+2.75L4. CALIFORNIA VOCE+3.5L5. TOP TOP TEA+4L6. SKY FOREVER+4L7. RUN RUN BUDDY+4.25L8. PODIUM+5.75L9. WINNER METHOD+7L10. LESLIE+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SOLID IMPACT (15.8%) finished 3rd — the winner BEAUTY CHAMP was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 SOLID IMPACT 15.8% 6.34 3
2 6 RUN RUN BUDDY 14.8% 6.77 7
3 5 BEAUTY INSPIRE 13.1% 7.61 2
4 13 TOP TOP TEA 13.1% 7.65 5
5 11 ARIEL 8.2% 12.15 11
6 2 WINNER METHOD 6.1% 16.34 9
7 3 CALIFORNIA VOCE 5.8% 17.26 4
8 12 BEAUTY CHAMP 5.1% 19.52 1
9 8 LESLIE 5.0% 20.14 10
10 7 SKY FOREVER 4.7% 21.30 6
11 1 KIMBERLEY 3.0% 33.59 13
12 10 ENDEARED 2.3% 44.26 14
13 9 PODIUM 2.2% 45.36 8
14 14 G LINER 0.8% 118.58 12
SOLID IMPACTRUN RUN BUDDYBEAUTY INSPIRETOP TOP TEAARIELWINNER METHODCALIFORNIA VOCEBEAUTY CHAMP — wonLESLIESKY FOREVERKIMBERLEYENDEAREDPODIUMG LINER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 205

PLACE

4 18

5 14

12 48

QUINELLA

5,12 279.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 36.5

4,12 143.5

5,12 96.5

FORECAST

12,5 1,311

TIERCE

12,5,4 4,381

TRIO

4,5,12 355

FIRST 4

3,4,5,12 1,448

QUARTET

12,5,4,3 54,866

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 31.5

A1

A2

8TH DOUBLE

7/5 168.5

7/12 8,713