Happy Valley · 2023-04-26 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-26 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TO INFINITY, ridden by K C Leung and trained by J Richards, won by 1/2, with HANG'S CHOICE second and RED IMPACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite THETA HEDGE finished 10th.

Result

Official · 1.40.27

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.27 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · J Richards	K C Leung	J Richards	10	135 lb	18.0	1/2
2	10	HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So	M Chadwick	W Y So	3	121 lb	5.1	1/2
3	5	RED IMPACT Closed strongly V-/XB/B2/TT L Ferraris · D J Hall	L Ferraris	D J Hall	5	133 lb	23.0	1-1/2
4	8	ANGELS HUNTER Closed strongly V C L Chau · K L Man	C L Chau	K L Man	7	124 lb	18.0	1-1/2
5	12	BARON ZEE Closed strongly B/TT Y L Chung · R Gibson	Y L Chung	R Gibson	4	108 lb	33.0	3
6	6	GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B2 S De Sousa · C H Yip	S De Sousa	C H Yip	6	127 lb	8.8	3
7	7	MISTER ARM Led early H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	12	125 lb	34.0	3-1/2
8	9	MEDIC ELITE PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng	A Badel	P C Ng	11	126 lb	10.0	3-1/2
9	3	CIRCUIT ELITE Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz	C Y Ho	A S Cruz	9	134 lb	9.6	4-1/4
10	4	THETA HEDGE H-/B2/TT K Teetan · K W Lui	K Teetan	K W Lui	1	134 lb	3.6	5-3/4
11	1	HAPPY JAI JAI TT H Bowman · T P Yung	H Bowman	T P Yung	8	135 lb	6.7	5-3/4
12	11	EUROMISSILE B-/XB M F Poon · C W Chang	M F Poon	C W Chang	2	118 lb	14.0	8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick THETA HEDGE (22.1%) finished 10th — the winner TO INFINITY was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	4	THETA HEDGE	22.1%	4.53	10	3.6
2	10	HANG'S CHOICE	12.9%	7.74	2	5.1
3	1	HAPPY JAI JAI	12.5%	8.01	11	6.7
4	3	CIRCUIT ELITE	10.3%	9.74	9	9.6
5	11	EUROMISSILE	7.9%	12.61	12	14.0
6	6	GLORIOUS LOVER	6.4%	15.63	6	8.8
7	5	RED IMPACT	6.3%	15.90	3	23.0
8	7	MISTER ARM	5.4%	18.41	7	34.0
9	8	ANGELS HUNTER	4.7%	21.10	4	18.0
10	2	TO INFINITY	4.6%	21.70	1	18.0
11	9	MEDIC ELITE	4.1%	24.59	8	10.0
12	12	BARON ZEE	2.8%	35.77	5	33.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 182.5

PLACE

2 54

5 65

10 17

QUINELLA

2,10 454.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 562

2,10 150

5,10 186.5

FORECAST

2,10 975

TIERCE

2,10,5 15,351

TRIO

2,5,10 2,956

FIRST 4

2,5,8,10 8,094

QUARTET

2,10,5,8 142,795

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A3 26.5

A2 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 1650m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99