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Happy Valley · 2023-04-26 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-26 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SNOWALOT, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1, with MELBOURNE HALL second and KING ECCELLENTE third. Victory came as the 3.6 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SNOWALOT B 1.09.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D A Hayes 2 3.6 1
2 8 MELBOURNE HALL B/XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 11.0 1
3 3 KING ECCELLENTE CP/H/XB H Bowman · D J Whyte 9 6.4 2-1/4
4 5 KASI FARASI B Z Purton · C H Yip 11 10.0 3
5 6 STOICISM TT Y L Chung · R Gibson 8 36.0 3-1/4
6 10 FLAMING PASSION H/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 17.0 3-1/4
7 12 GET THE MONIES XB1 M F Poon · K W Lui 6 72.0 3-1/2
8 4 MR VALIANT H/XB S De Sousa · L Ho 1 3.8 3-1/2
9 11 CRAIG'S MASTER SR/H1/TT H Bentley · K H Ting 10 120.0 3-1/2
10 7 SUPER ELITE TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 12 16.0 4-1/2
11 1 LUCKY QUALITY K H Chan · C Fownes 4 25.0 5-1/2
12 2 BEAUTY TURN SR-/CP1/TT1 A Badel · P C Ng 5 7.4 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SNOWALOT2. MELBOURNE HALL+1L3. KING ECCELLENTE+2.25L4. KASI FARASI+3L5. STOICISM+3.25L6. FLAMING PASSION+3.25L7. GET THE MONIES+3.5L8. MR VALIANT+3.5L9. CRAIG'S MASTER+3.5L10. SUPER ELITE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SNOWALOT (19.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 SNOWALOT 19.1% 5.22 1
2 4 MR VALIANT 18.5% 5.42 8
3 3 KING ECCELLENTE 12.1% 8.28 3
4 5 KASI FARASI 11.8% 8.50 4
5 8 MELBOURNE HALL 9.1% 10.93 2
6 10 FLAMING PASSION 5.7% 17.48 6
7 7 SUPER ELITE 5.3% 18.69 10
8 12 GET THE MONIES 5.3% 18.99 7
9 2 BEAUTY TURN 4.6% 21.57 12
10 6 STOICISM 4.3% 23.44 5
11 1 LUCKY QUALITY 2.2% 44.64 11
12 11 CRAIG'S MASTER 1.9% 51.56 9
SNOWALOT — wonMR VALIANTKING ECCELLENTEKASI FARASIMELBOURNE HALLFLAMING PASSIONSUPER ELITEGET THE MONIESBEAUTY TURNSTOICISMLUCKY QUALITYCRAIG'S MASTER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 36.5

PLACE

3 22

8 29.5

9 15

QUINELLA

8,9 122.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 106.5

3,9 52.5

8,9 44.5

FORECAST

9,8 134

TIERCE

9,8,3 1,366

TRIO

3,8,9 326

FIRST 4

3,5,8,9 405

QUARTET

9,8,3,5 7,718

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

2/8 278.5

2/9 988

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 19

A2