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Happy Valley · 2023-04-26 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-26 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HARMONY N BLESSED, ridden by K C Leung and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1/2, with SEASONS WIT second and LIGHTNING STORM third. The 4.5 favourite HARMONY FIRE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 0.56.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 HARMONY N BLESSED B2/TT 0.56.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K C Leung · D A Hayes 4 5.6 1/2
2 7 SEASONS WIT B/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 4.7 1/2
3 5 LIGHTNING STORM TT L Hewitson · C S Shum 9 16.0 1-1/4
4 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 8 5.3 1-1/2
5 2 SPECIAL M PC/TT H Bowman · J Size 3 5.9 2-3/4
6 9 HARMONY FIRE SR/TT A Hamelin · D J Whyte 1 4.5 2-3/4
7 8 FLYING DRAGON XB/V1 C Wong · C H Yip 6 66.0 4-1/4
8 4 GORGEOUS VITALITY S De Sousa · F C Lor 11 16.0 4-1/2
9 3 MARK THE MOMENT V/TT A Badel · P C Ng 5 14.0 5
10 11 LUCKY FUN V2 H W Lai · L Ho 7 70.0 5
11 10 THE RUNNER V H T Mo · K H Ting 2 40.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY N BLESSED2. SEASONS WIT+0.5L3. LIGHTNING STORM+1.25L4. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+1.5L5. SPECIAL M+2.75L6. HARMONY FIRE+2.75L7. FLYING DRAGON+4.25L8. GORGEOUS VITALITY+4.5L9. MARK THE MOMENT+5L10. LUCKY FUN+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick SEASONS WIT (20.1%) finished 2nd — the winner HARMONY N BLESSED was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 SEASONS WIT 20.1% 4.98 2
2 3 MARK THE MOMENT 19.1% 5.24 9
3 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 16.7% 5.98 4
4 2 SPECIAL M 10.0% 9.95 5
5 5 LIGHTNING STORM 9.1% 11.03 3
6 6 HARMONY N BLESSED 6.8% 14.62 1
7 4 GORGEOUS VITALITY 6.5% 15.32 8
8 9 HARMONY FIRE 4.2% 23.81 6
9 10 THE RUNNER 3.6% 28.10 11
10 8 FLYING DRAGON 2.6% 38.90 7
11 11 LUCKY FUN 1.3% 76.05 10
SEASONS WITMARK THE MOMENTCALIFORNIA DEEPLYSPECIAL MLIGHTNING STORMHARMONY N BLESSED — wonGORGEOUS VITALITYHARMONY FIRETHE RUNNERFLYING DRAGONLUCKY FUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 56.5

PLACE

5 49.5

6 21

7 19

QUINELLA

6,7 165

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 183.5

5,7 119

6,7 64.5

FORECAST

6,7 357

TIERCE

6,7,5 5,878

TRIO

5,6,7 732

FIRST 4

1,5,6,7 779

QUARTET

6,7,5,1 26,781

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 28.5

7TH DOUBLE

6/6 186.5

6/7 17.5