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Happy Valley · 2023-04-26 · 20:16

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-26 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. INVINCIBLE MISSILE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with ROMANTIC LAOS second and RIGHT HONOURABLE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite ROMANTIC LAOS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly TT 1.40.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 2 4.2 1/2
2 4 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly H/TT Z Purton · J Richards 8 3.2 1/2
3 9 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly H/PC/TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 6 15.0 1/2
4 11 SUPER BUDDY B H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 86.0 2
5 5 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 5 35.0 2-1/4
6 1 GANG OF BROTHERS CP/TT A Badel · P C Ng 9 11.0 2-1/2
7 6 RIVER VIEWS Led early L Hewitson · T P Yung 10 10.0 2-3/4
8 7 V CHEVALIERS B/TT S De Sousa · K L Man 1 4.6 3-1/2
9 8 LIFELINE VISION Closed strongly CP K Teetan · D A Hayes 11 19.0 3-3/4
10 3 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 15.0 4-1/2
11 10 STARSHIP EIGHTY B/H/TT Y L Chung · P C Ng 3 36.0 5
12 12 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT C Wong · C H Yip 4 66.0 5-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. INVINCIBLE MISSILE2. ROMANTIC LAOS+0.5L3. RIGHT HONOURABLE+0.5L4. SUPER BUDDY+2L5. KYRUS UNICORN+2.25L6. GANG OF BROTHERS+2.5L7. RIVER VIEWS+2.75L8. V CHEVALIERS+3.5L9. LIFELINE VISION+3.75L10. WIN WIN FIGHTER+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROMANTIC LAOS (25.4%) finished 2nd — the winner INVINCIBLE MISSILE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 ROMANTIC LAOS 25.4% 3.94 2
2 7 V CHEVALIERS 17.4% 5.73 8
3 1 GANG OF BROTHERS 11.8% 8.47 6
4 2 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 9.1% 10.99 1
5 6 RIVER VIEWS 6.6% 15.09 7
6 10 STARSHIP EIGHTY 6.1% 16.36 11
7 8 LIFELINE VISION 5.7% 17.55 9
8 5 KYRUS UNICORN 4.4% 22.71 5
9 9 RIGHT HONOURABLE 4.3% 23.13 3
10 3 WIN WIN FIGHTER 4.2% 23.99 10
11 12 FLASH FAMOUS 3.4% 29.05 12
12 11 SUPER BUDDY 1.5% 66.67 4
ROMANTIC LAOSV CHEVALIERSGANG OF BROTHERSINVINCIBLE MISSILE — wonRIVER VIEWSSTARSHIP EIGHTYLIFELINE VISIONKYRUS UNICORNRIGHT HONOURABLEWIN WIN FIGHTERFLASH FAMOUSSUPER BUDDY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 42.5

PLACE

2 15.5

4 14.5

9 49.5

QUINELLA

2,4 83.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 39

2,9 127

4,9 165

FORECAST

2,4 174

TIERCE

2,4,9 2,080

TRIO

2,4,9 576

FIRST 4

2,4,9,11 5,678

QUARTET

2,4,9,11 54,368

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18

3RD DOUBLE

6/2 229

6/4 26