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Happy Valley · 2023-04-26 · 21:17

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.48.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly H/TT 1.48.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz 2 3.2 N
2 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 11 9.9 N
3 0 SMILING TIME Closed strongly V/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 4 7.3 2-3/4
4 0 SAVVY KINGMAN B M Chadwick · F C Lor 6 21.0 3
5 0 ROUND THE EARTH Closed strongly B K Teetan · D J Hall 12 8.2 3
6 0 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly L Hewitson · W Y So 9 11.0 3-1/2
7 0 YOUNG BRILLIANT B V Borges · C H Yip 10 18.0 3-1/2
8 0 INTREPID WINNER B/BR H Bentley · A T Millard 1 13.0 4-3/4
9 0 FLYING SILVER CP/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 8 6.0 5
10 0 BULLETPROOF V- R Maia · P F Yiu 5 30.0 5-1/4
11 0 SATIRICAL GLORY Led early H S De Sousa · D A Hayes 7 19.0 5-1/4
12 0 CELESTIAL POWER V-/B2/TT1 A Badel · F C Lor 3 38.0 60-1/2
— 0 TURIN MASCOT C Y Ho · D J Whyte — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-04-26 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. LA CITY BLANCHE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with MAJESTIC VICTORY second and SMILING TIME third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LA CITY BLANCHE—2. MAJESTIC VICTORY+0.05L3. SMILING TIME+2.75L4. SAVVY KINGMAN+3L5. ROUND THE EARTH+3L6. TIANCHI MONSTER+3.5L7. YOUNG BRILLIANT+3.5L8. INTREPID WINNER+4.75L9. FLYING SILVER+5L10. BULLETPROOF+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick FLYING SILVER (18.0%) finished 9th — the winner LA CITY BLANCHE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 FLYING SILVER 18.0% 5.55 9
2 0 LA CITY BLANCHE 13.1% 7.63 1
3 0 SMILING TIME 11.4% 8.76 3
4 0 ROUND THE EARTH 8.6% 11.63 5
5 0 MAJESTIC VICTORY 7.5% 13.30 2
6 0 SAVVY KINGMAN 7.1% 13.99 4
7 0 INTREPID WINNER 6.7% 14.93 8
8 0 CELESTIAL POWER 6.5% 15.29 12
9 0 TIANCHI MONSTER 6.5% 15.33 6
10 0 BULLETPROOF 6.4% 15.55 10
11 0 SATIRICAL GLORY 5.1% 19.43 11
12 0 YOUNG BRILLIANT 2.9% 35.03 7
FLYING SILVERLA CITY BLANCHE — wonSMILING TIMEROUND THE EARTHMAJESTIC VICTORYSAVVY KINGMANINTREPID WINNERCELESTIAL POWERTIANCHI MONSTERBULLETPROOFSATIRICAL GLORYYOUNG BRILLIANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 32

PLACE

3 16.5

6 35

9 22

QUINELLA

3,6 232

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 90

3,9 41.5

6,9 121

FORECAST

3,6 369

TIERCE

3,6,9 1,625

TRIO

3,6,9 438

FIRST 4

3,4,6,9 1,592

QUARTET

3,6,9,4 22,868

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 21

A3 —

A2 —

5TH DOUBLE

10/3 235.5

10/6 126.5