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Happy Valley · 2023-05-03 · 19:47

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 11.0 3/4
2 0 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 3 4.7 3/4
3 0 BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 4 7.1 3/4
4 0 HAPPY ANGEL Led early B A Badel · P C Ng 10 5.9 2
5 0 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · C W Chang 8 14.0 3
6 0 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly B-/XB/SR2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 5.5 3
7 0 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 9 12.0 3-3/4
8 0 HAPPY HUNK B-/TT M F Poon · K L Man 2 65.0 3-3/4
9 0 ONE HEART ONE CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 4.6 6-3/4
10 0 GREAT BRILLIANT B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 5 55.0 10
11 0 BULB DRAGON XB-/B/TT R Maia · C H Yip 12 97.0 13-1/4
12 0 BAYVIEW STAR H C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 67.0 53-1/4
— 0 READY PLAYER ONE Z Purton · J Richards — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. VIVA POPCORN, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with ROYAL PRIDE second and BEAUTY MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite ONE HEART ONE finished 9th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIVA POPCORN—2. ROYAL PRIDE+0.75L3. BEAUTY MISSION+0.75L4. HAPPY ANGEL+2L5. AMAZING BOY+3L6. DURHAM STAR+3L7. KYRUS UNICORN+3.75L8. HAPPY HUNK+3.75L9. ONE HEART ONE+6.75L10. GREAT BRILLIANT+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROYAL PRIDE (22.4%) finished 2nd — the winner VIVA POPCORN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ROYAL PRIDE 22.4% 4.46 2
2 0 ONE HEART ONE 17.7% 5.65 9
3 0 VIVA POPCORN 11.1% 8.99 1
4 0 HAPPY ANGEL 10.3% 9.66 4
5 0 BEAUTY MISSION 10.0% 10.01 3
6 0 DURHAM STAR 8.1% 12.42 6
7 0 KYRUS UNICORN 7.5% 13.31 7
8 0 AMAZING BOY 7.4% 13.52 5
9 0 HAPPY HUNK 1.7% 59.15 8
10 0 GREAT BRILLIANT 1.6% 63.19 10
11 0 BAYVIEW STAR 1.1% 90.95 12
12 0 BULB DRAGON 1.1% 94.26 11
ROYAL PRIDEONE HEART ONEVIVA POPCORN — wonHAPPY ANGELBEAUTY MISSIONDURHAM STARKYRUS UNICORNAMAZING BOYHAPPY HUNKGREAT BRILLIANTBAYVIEW STARBULB DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 110

PLACE

1 18.5

2 33.5

7 24.5

QUINELLA

1,2 220

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 75.5

1,7 65

2,7 102

FORECAST

2,1 461

TIERCE

2,1,7 2,786

TRIO

1,2,7 345

FIRST 4

1,2,7,9 385

QUARTET

2,1,7,9 10,016

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,8/1,2,7 20,945

2ND DOUBLE

6/1 46.5

6/2 348.5

3 PICK 1

A3 34

A1 —

A2 —