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Happy Valley · 2023-05-03 · 19:47

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. VIVA POPCORN, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with ROYAL PRIDE second and BEAUTY MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite ONE HEART ONE finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.40.72
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 1 11.0 3/4
2 1 ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 3 4.7 3/4
3 7 BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 4 7.1 3/4
4 9 HAPPY ANGEL Led early B A Badel · P C Ng 10 5.9 2
5 10 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · C W Chang 8 14.0 3
6 5 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly B-/XB/SR2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 5.5 3
7 6 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall 9 12.0 3-3/4
8 8 HAPPY HUNK B-/TT M F Poon · K L Man 2 65.0 3-3/4
9 12 ONE HEART ONE CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 4.6 6-3/4
10 11 GREAT BRILLIANT B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 5 55.0 10
11 4 BULB DRAGON XB-/B/TT R Maia · C H Yip 12 97.0 13-1/4
12 3 BAYVIEW STAR H C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 67.0 53-1/4
0 READY PLAYER ONE Z Purton · J Richards

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIVA POPCORN2. ROYAL PRIDE+0.75L3. BEAUTY MISSION+0.75L4. HAPPY ANGEL+2L5. AMAZING BOY+3L6. DURHAM STAR+3L7. KYRUS UNICORN+3.75L8. HAPPY HUNK+3.75L9. ONE HEART ONE+6.75L10. GREAT BRILLIANT+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ROYAL PRIDE (22.4%) finished 2nd — the winner VIVA POPCORN was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 ROYAL PRIDE 22.4% 4.46 2
2 12 ONE HEART ONE 17.7% 5.65 9
3 2 VIVA POPCORN 11.1% 8.99 1
4 9 HAPPY ANGEL 10.3% 9.66 4
5 7 BEAUTY MISSION 10.0% 10.01 3
6 5 DURHAM STAR 8.1% 12.42 6
7 6 KYRUS UNICORN 7.5% 13.31 7
8 10 AMAZING BOY 7.4% 13.52 5
9 8 HAPPY HUNK 1.7% 59.15 8
10 11 GREAT BRILLIANT 1.6% 63.19 10
11 3 BAYVIEW STAR 1.1% 90.95 12
12 4 BULB DRAGON 1.1% 94.26 11
ROYAL PRIDEONE HEART ONEVIVA POPCORN — wonHAPPY ANGELBEAUTY MISSIONDURHAM STARKYRUS UNICORNAMAZING BOYHAPPY HUNKGREAT BRILLIANTBAYVIEW STARBULB DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 110

PLACE

1 18.5

2 33.5

7 24.5

QUINELLA

1,2 220

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 75.5

1,7 65

2,7 102

FORECAST

2,1 461

TIERCE

2,1,7 2,786

TRIO

1,2,7 345

FIRST 4

1,2,7,9 385

QUARTET

2,1,7,9 10,016

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,6,8/1,2,7 20,945

2ND DOUBLE

6/1 46.5

6/2 348.5

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 34