Happy Valley · 2023-05-03 · 19:47
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. VIVA POPCORN, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with ROYAL PRIDE second and BEAUTY MISSION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite ONE HEART ONE finished 9th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | VIVA POPCORN Closed strongly H/TT 1.40.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 1 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 1 | ROYAL PRIDE Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 3 | 4.7 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 7 | BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/TT M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 4 | 7.1 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | HAPPY ANGEL Led early B A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 10 | 5.9 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT S De Sousa · C W Chang | S De Sousa | C W Chang | 8 | 14.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | DURHAM STAR Closed strongly B-/XB/SR2 L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 5.5 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B K H Chan · D J Hall | K H Chan | D J Hall | 9 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | HAPPY HUNK B-/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 2 | 65.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | ONE HEART ONE CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 6 | 4.6 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | GREAT BRILLIANT B H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 5 | 55.0 | 10 |
| 11 | 4 | BULB DRAGON XB-/B/TT R Maia · C H Yip | R Maia | C H Yip | 12 | 97.0 | 13-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | BAYVIEW STAR H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 67.0 | 53-1/4 |
| — | 0 | READY PLAYER ONE Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | ROYAL PRIDE | 22.4% | 4.46 | 2 |
| 2 | 12 | ONE HEART ONE | 17.7% | 5.65 | 9 |
| 3 | 2 | VIVA POPCORN | 11.1% | 8.99 | 1 |
| 4 | 9 | HAPPY ANGEL | 10.3% | 9.66 | 4 |
| 5 | 7 | BEAUTY MISSION | 10.0% | 10.01 | 3 |
| 6 | 5 | DURHAM STAR | 8.1% | 12.42 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | KYRUS UNICORN | 7.5% | 13.31 | 7 |
| 8 | 10 | AMAZING BOY | 7.4% | 13.52 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | HAPPY HUNK | 1.7% | 59.15 | 8 |
| 10 | 11 | GREAT BRILLIANT | 1.6% | 63.19 | 10 |
| 11 | 3 | BAYVIEW STAR | 1.1% | 90.95 | 12 |
| 12 | 4 | BULB DRAGON | 1.1% | 94.26 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 110
PLACE
1 18.5
2 33.5
7 24.5
QUINELLA
1,2 220
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 75.5
1,7 65
2,7 102
FORECAST
2,1 461
TIERCE
2,1,7 2,786
TRIO
1,2,7 345
FIRST 4
1,2,7,9 385
QUARTET
2,1,7,9 10,016
All pools (3 more)
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
1,6,8/1,2,7 20,945
2ND DOUBLE
6/1 46.5
6/2 348.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 34