Happy Valley · 2023-05-03 · 21:46
Race 7
Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-03 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HOSS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by N, with PARTY WARRIOR second and WINGS OF WAR third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HOSS XB/TT 1.09.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 2 | 1.6 | N |
| 2 | 9 | PARTY WARRIOR H C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 19.0 | N |
| 3 | 4 | WINGS OF WAR CP-/B1 H Bentley · A T Millard | H Bentley | A T Millard | 8 | 30.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | VICTORY SCHOLARS V K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 5 | 8.7 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT B K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 4 | 22.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 11 | NAMJONG SINGS B/TT- M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 10 | 86.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | BEAUTY TYCOON H/PC K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 3 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 6 | HUMBLE STAR SR/TT A Badel · P C Ng | A Badel | P C Ng | 1 | 8.9 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | MAYHEM H M Chadwick · F C Lor | M Chadwick | F C Lor | 11 | 97.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 34.0 | 8 |
| 11 | 2 | O'LINER TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 111.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | JOLLY RULER H/B1 S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 6 | 9.1 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | HOSS | 50.1% | 2.00 | 1 |
| 2 | 12 | VICTORY SCHOLARS | 13.0% | 7.69 | 4 |
| 3 | 1 | BEAUTY TYCOON | 8.6% | 11.69 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | JOLLY RULER | 6.2% | 16.13 | 12 |
| 5 | 6 | HUMBLE STAR | 4.8% | 21.05 | 8 |
| 6 | 10 | COMPASSION SPIRIT | 4.6% | 21.67 | 5 |
| 7 | 9 | PARTY WARRIOR | 4.5% | 22.16 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | YOU'REMYEVERYTHING | 2.9% | 34.85 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | NAMJONG SINGS | 1.7% | 59.22 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | WINGS OF WAR | 1.6% | 61.74 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | MAYHEM | 1.4% | 73.77 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 | O'LINER | 0.7% | 137.43 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 16.5
PLACE
4 53.5
7 11.5
9 50.5
QUINELLA
7,9 188.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,7 94.5
4,9 758
7,9 72.5
FORECAST
7,9 264
TIERCE
7,9,4 3,394
TRIO
4,7,9 1,584
FIRST 4
4,7,9,12 1,529
QUARTET
7,9,4,12 19,132
All pools (4 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 14.5
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,8,11/4,7,9 150,321
6TH DOUBLE
3/7 119.5
3/9 457.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,6,12/3,8,11/Any Combination 86,970