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Happy Valley · 2023-05-03 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-03 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. FORTUNE PRESIDENT, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by Y S Tsui, won by SH, with SPLENDID LIVING second and FEARLESS FIRE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.5 favourite SPLENDID LIVING finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FORTUNE PRESIDENT Closed strongly 1.40.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · Y S Tsui 5 47.0 SH
2 3 SPLENDID LIVING CP2/TT H Bentley · P F Yiu 7 3.5 SH
3 6 FEARLESS FIRE Closed strongly B/XB L Currie · D A Hayes 6 31.0 2
4 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON Led early H-/V-/TT1 C L Chau · T P Yung 11 127.0 2-1/4
5 8 JUNE PLANET Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 12 4.1 2-1/2
6 2 INCANTO PREPARED Closed strongly E-/TT A Badel · W Y So 2 14.0 3
7 5 RIGHT AS RAIN B K Teetan · D J Hall 1 5.2 4-1/2
8 7 BIG TWO Closed strongly H/SR/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 18.0 5-1/4
9 11 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 3 18.0 5-1/2
10 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 9 5.8 9-1/4
11 1 DINKUM CP/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 13.0 10-1/2
12 10 TRAVEL GUIDE XB/CP1/TT L Ferraris · R Gibson 10 80.0 18-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FORTUNE PRESIDENT2. SPLENDID LIVING+0.1L3. FEARLESS FIRE+2L4. MILLENNIUM FALCON+2.25L5. JUNE PLANET+2.5L6. INCANTO PREPARED+3L7. RIGHT AS RAIN+4.5L8. BIG TWO+5.25L9. REGENCY MASTER+5.5L10. HELENE WISDOM STAR+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick RIGHT AS RAIN (18.0%) finished 7th — the winner FORTUNE PRESIDENT was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 RIGHT AS RAIN 18.0% 5.56 7
2 3 SPLENDID LIVING 16.0% 6.25 2
3 8 JUNE PLANET 14.4% 6.96 5
4 4 HELENE WISDOM STAR 11.2% 8.92 10
5 7 BIG TWO 8.5% 11.75 8
6 11 REGENCY MASTER 7.8% 12.85 9
7 12 FORTUNE PRESIDENT 7.5% 13.32 1
8 1 DINKUM 5.5% 18.18 11
9 6 FEARLESS FIRE 4.3% 23.31 3
10 2 INCANTO PREPARED 3.5% 28.61 6
11 10 TRAVEL GUIDE 1.9% 51.39 12
12 9 MILLENNIUM FALCON 1.4% 70.56 4
RIGHT AS RAINSPLENDID LIVINGJUNE PLANETHELENE WISDOM STARBIG TWOREGENCY MASTERFORTUNE PRESIDENT — wonDINKUMFEARLESS FIREINCANTO PREPAREDTRAVEL GUIDEMILLENNIUM FALCON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 471

PLACE

3 13

6 56

12 94

QUINELLA

3,12 890.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 147

3,12 247

6,12 1,177.5

FORECAST

12,3 1,896

TIERCE

12,3,6 45,064

TRIO

3,6,12 5,421

FIRST 4

3,6,9,12 25,342

QUARTET

12,3,6,9 704,083

All pools (4 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/5/3 365

2/5/12 28,532

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,9,10/3,6,12 382,261

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 37

4TH DOUBLE

5/3 24.5

5/12 1,620.5