Happy Valley · 2023-05-03 · 20:17
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-03 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY UNITED, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by SH, with YOUNG LIFE FOREVER second and LORIZ third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | HAPPY UNITED P/TT 1.10.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 7 | 3.2 | SH |
| 2 | 9 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER H Bentley · C Fownes | H Bentley | C Fownes | 6 | 9.3 | SH |
| 3 | 10 | LORIZ B B Avdulla · P F Yiu | B Avdulla | P F Yiu | 3 | 8.0 | HD |
| 4 | 6 | DENFIELD TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 10 | 5.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | DIAMOND DIAMOND C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 4 | 67.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | MODEST GENTLEMAN P/TT K Teetan · L Ho | K Teetan | L Ho | 11 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | GOOD VIEW GLORY A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 1 | 9.4 | 3 |
| 8 | 2 | DREAM PURSUER V- H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 9 | 7.6 | 4-1/4 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER COMMANDER V/TT L Ferraris · P C Ng | L Ferraris | P C Ng | 8 | 37.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | SAVVY CHIC TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 12 | 20.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | WINNING DELAGO H/XB1 M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 5 | 18.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 12 | 12 | HAR HAR AT HEART E A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 2 | 31.0 | 12-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | LORIZ | 11.5% | 8.69 | 3 |
| 2 | 5 | HAPPY UNITED | 11.5% | 8.73 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | DREAM PURSUER | 11.3% | 8.83 | 8 |
| 4 | 6 | DENFIELD | 10.7% | 9.32 | 4 |
| 5 | 1 | SAVVY CHIC | 10.4% | 9.61 | 10 |
| 6 | 9 | YOUNG LIFE FOREVER | 9.6% | 10.42 | 2 |
| 7 | 11 | MODEST GENTLEMAN | 9.6% | 10.47 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | WINNING DELAGO | 7.7% | 13.03 | 11 |
| 9 | 3 | SUPER COMMANDER | 5.8% | 17.25 | 9 |
| 10 | 4 | DIAMOND DIAMOND | 5.8% | 17.30 | 5 |
| 11 | 7 | GOOD VIEW GLORY | 3.4% | 29.06 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | HAR HAR AT HEART | 2.7% | 36.51 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 32.5
PLACE
5 13.5
9 29.5
10 31.5
QUINELLA
5,9 205
QUINELLA PLACE
5,9 76.5
5,10 61.5
9,10 121.5
FORECAST
5,9 327
TIERCE
5,9,10 2,151
TRIO
5,9,10 436
FIRST 4
5,6,9,10 691
QUARTET
5,9,10,6 13,809
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 20.5
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
2/5 475.5
2/9 197