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Happy Valley · 2023-05-31 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-31 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHARIZARD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with HAPPY JAI JAI second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite ANGELS HUNTER finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 1 6.1 1-1/4
2 1 HAPPY JAI JAI Closed strongly TT K C Leung · T P Yung 10 15.0 1-1/4
3 10 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT M Dee · P C Ng 7 4.8 2-1/2
4 12 VIVA A LA H/P/TT A Badel · L Ho 3 6.3 3-1/2
5 7 ALL IS READY Closed strongly B-/V1 B Avdulla · P F Yiu 2 25.0 3-3/4
6 9 ANGELS HUNTER V Z Purton · K L Man 8 4.3 4-1/4
7 2 OUR CREED Led early V L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 12.0 5-3/4
8 6 VALHALLA V/XB/TT L Currie · C Fownes 4 13.0 6
9 5 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · R Gibson 11 30.0 7
10 8 FLYING GALLOP XB/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 75.0 7-1/2
11 11 HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 8.1 8-1/4
12 3 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 40.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARIZARD2. HAPPY JAI JAI+1.25L3. MEDIC ELITE+2.5L4. VIVA A LA+3.5L5. ALL IS READY+3.75L6. ANGELS HUNTER+4.25L7. OUR CREED+5.75L8. VALHALLA+6L9. ERNEST FEELING+7L10. FLYING GALLOP+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ANGELS HUNTER (27.4%) finished 6th — the winner CHARIZARD was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ANGELS HUNTER 27.4% 3.65 6
2 11 HANG'S CHOICE 13.6% 7.36 11
3 4 CHARIZARD 11.8% 8.45 1
4 2 OUR CREED 10.1% 9.90 7
5 6 VALHALLA 9.2% 10.84 8
6 10 MEDIC ELITE 8.0% 12.54 3
7 1 HAPPY JAI JAI 5.6% 17.94 2
8 12 VIVA A LA 5.0% 20.04 4
9 5 ERNEST FEELING 4.3% 23.14 9
10 7 ALL IS READY 2.2% 46.03 5
11 3 FLASH FAMOUS 1.6% 60.81 12
12 8 FLYING GALLOP 1.2% 86.00 10
ANGELS HUNTERHANG'S CHOICECHARIZARD — wonOUR CREEDVALHALLAMEDIC ELITEHAPPY JAI JAIVIVA A LAERNEST FEELINGALL IS READYFLASH FAMOUSFLYING GALLOP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 61.5

PLACE

1 41.5

4 18.5

10 18

QUINELLA

1,4 452

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 139

1,10 140.5

4,10 53.5

FORECAST

4,1 714

TIERCE

4,1,10 4,392

TRIO

1,4,10 858

FIRST 4

1,4,10,12 1,043

QUARTET

4,1,10,12 24,649

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 35

A3