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Happy Valley · 2023-05-31 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1650m Course C+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.39.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 CHARIZARD Closed strongly B/TT 1.39.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 1 6.1 1-1/4
2 0 HAPPY JAI JAI Closed strongly TT K C Leung · T P Yung 10 15.0 1-1/4
3 0 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT M Dee · P C Ng 7 4.8 2-1/2
4 0 VIVA A LA H/P/TT A Badel · L Ho 3 6.3 3-1/2
5 0 ALL IS READY Closed strongly B-/V1 B Avdulla · P F Yiu 2 25.0 3-3/4
6 0 ANGELS HUNTER V Z Purton · K L Man 8 4.3 4-1/4
7 0 OUR CREED Led early V L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 12.0 5-3/4
8 0 VALHALLA V/XB/TT L Currie · C Fownes 4 13.0 6
9 0 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT H Bentley · R Gibson 11 30.0 7
10 0 FLYING GALLOP XB/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 6 75.0 7-1/2
11 0 HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 9 8.1 8-1/4
12 0 FLASH FAMOUS B/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 12 40.0 9

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-31 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. CHARIZARD, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 1-1/4, with HAPPY JAI JAI second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.3 favourite ANGELS HUNTER finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARIZARD—2. HAPPY JAI JAI+1.25L3. MEDIC ELITE+2.5L4. VIVA A LA+3.5L5. ALL IS READY+3.75L6. ANGELS HUNTER+4.25L7. OUR CREED+5.75L8. VALHALLA+6L9. ERNEST FEELING+7L10. FLYING GALLOP+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ANGELS HUNTER (27.4%) finished 6th — the winner CHARIZARD was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 ANGELS HUNTER 27.4% 3.65 6
2 0 HANG'S CHOICE 13.6% 7.36 11
3 0 CHARIZARD 11.8% 8.45 1
4 0 OUR CREED 10.1% 9.90 7
5 0 VALHALLA 9.2% 10.84 8
6 0 MEDIC ELITE 8.0% 12.54 3
7 0 HAPPY JAI JAI 5.6% 17.94 2
8 0 VIVA A LA 5.0% 20.04 4
9 0 ERNEST FEELING 4.3% 23.14 9
10 0 ALL IS READY 2.2% 46.03 5
11 0 FLASH FAMOUS 1.6% 60.81 12
12 0 FLYING GALLOP 1.2% 86.00 10
ANGELS HUNTERHANG'S CHOICECHARIZARD — wonOUR CREEDVALHALLAMEDIC ELITEHAPPY JAI JAIVIVA A LAERNEST FEELINGALL IS READYFLASH FAMOUSFLYING GALLOP

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 61.5

PLACE

1 41.5

4 18.5

10 18

QUINELLA

1,4 452

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 139

1,10 140.5

4,10 53.5

FORECAST

4,1 714

TIERCE

4,1,10 4,392

TRIO

1,4,10 858

FIRST 4

1,4,10,12 1,043

QUARTET

4,1,10,12 24,649

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 35

A3 —

A2 —