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Happy Valley · 2023-05-31 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1800m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-31 was Class 2 over 1800m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MEANINGFUL STAR, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with BUTTERFIELD second and NIMBLE NIMBUS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SWORD POINT finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.48.12
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B 1.48.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui 4 12.0 1-1/2
2 3 BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly CP/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 9 39.0 1-1/2
3 10 NIMBLE NIMBUS Led early V/TT A Badel · P F Yiu 3 4.5 1-1/2
4 8 NEARLY FINE Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 11 16.0 2-1/4
5 4 SWORD POINT K Teetan · F C Lor 8 3.6 2-1/2
6 9 ALACRITY TT Z Purton · J Richards 12 5.9 3-1/4
7 11 LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 5 6.1 4
8 2 SAVVY NINE B/XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 1 12.0 4-1/2
9 1 SAVAQUIN P- H Bowman · J Size 6 20.0 5
10 5 TURIN REDSUN SR/TT K C Leung · P C Ng 10 74.0 5-1/2
11 7 HANDSOME TWELVE H Bentley · T P Yung 7 39.0 8
12 6 PACKING AWARD M Dee · L Ho 2 19.0 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MEANINGFUL STAR2. BUTTERFIELD+1.5L3. NIMBLE NIMBUS+1.5L4. NEARLY FINE+2.25L5. SWORD POINT+2.5L6. ALACRITY+3.25L7. LA CITY BLANCHE+4L8. SAVVY NINE+4.5L9. SAVAQUIN+5L10. TURIN REDSUN+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ALACRITY (18.8%) finished 6th — the winner MEANINGFUL STAR was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ALACRITY 18.8% 5.31 6
2 4 SWORD POINT 13.5% 7.38 5
3 10 NIMBLE NIMBUS 13.4% 7.46 3
4 11 LA CITY BLANCHE 11.8% 8.48 7
5 12 MEANINGFUL STAR 8.9% 11.21 1
6 1 SAVAQUIN 7.9% 12.66 9
7 7 HANDSOME TWELVE 7.5% 13.27 11
8 6 PACKING AWARD 4.8% 21.05 12
9 2 SAVVY NINE 4.1% 24.20 8
10 8 NEARLY FINE 4.0% 25.09 4
11 3 BUTTERFIELD 3.6% 27.86 2
12 5 TURIN REDSUN 1.6% 61.15 10
ALACRITYSWORD POINTNIMBLE NIMBUSLA CITY BLANCHEMEANINGFUL STAR — wonSAVAQUINHANDSOME TWELVEPACKING AWARDSAVVY NINENEARLY FINEBUTTERFIELDTURIN REDSUN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 123.5

PLACE

3 88

10 16

12 37.5

QUINELLA

3,12 2,638.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,10 290

3,12 616

10,12 81.5

FORECAST

12,3 4,599

TIERCE

12,3,10 24,781

TRIO

3,10,12 3,022

FIRST 4

3,8,10,12 4,530

QUARTET

12,3,10,8 131,113

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/6/3 1,972

1/6/12 4,683

3 PICK 1

A3 33

A2

A1

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,7/3,10,12 146,062

8TH DOUBLE

6/3 154

6/12 377

SIX UP

11/2/4/1/6/12 179,170

11,12/2,9/4,5/1,10/4,6/3,12 4,983

2 [K Teetan]

1 [P F Yiu]