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Happy Valley · 2023-05-31 · 20:46

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-31 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SUPER AXIOM, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by Y S Tsui, won by 3/4, with ACE TALENT second and GOOD VIEW GLORY third. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.56.51
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT 0.56.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 3 3.2 3/4
2 9 ACE TALENT H/PC/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 8 5.4 3/4
3 10 GOOD VIEW GLORY A Hamelin · C H Yip 2 32.0 2-1/4
4 12 PLENTIFUL CP/H/XB M Dee · P C Ng 4 25.0 2-1/2
5 4 MR VALIANT H-/XB- M Chadwick · L Ho 10 26.0 3-1/4
6 8 NICETOBEMET CP/XB1 A Badel · F C Lor 1 3.6 3-3/4
7 5 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB L Ferraris · D J Hall 7 22.0 4
8 6 HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 46.0 4-1/4
9 1 SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT Z Purton · J Size 6 5.9 5
10 7 MR FUN H1/XB1/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 9 26.0 7-3/4
11 3 DIVINE ERA TT K C Leung · K H Ting 5 43.0 8-1/4
12 11 DIAMOND SOARS H/P/TT K H Chan · P F Yiu 11 26.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER AXIOM2. ACE TALENT+0.75L3. GOOD VIEW GLORY+2.25L4. PLENTIFUL+2.5L5. MR VALIANT+3.25L6. NICETOBEMET+3.75L7. OVERSUBSCRIBED+4L8. HEARTY WISH+4.25L9. SAVVY DELIGHT+5L10. MR FUN+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick ACE TALENT (20.5%) finished 2nd — the winner SUPER AXIOM was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 ACE TALENT 20.5% 4.88 2
2 8 NICETOBEMET 15.1% 6.64 6
3 1 SAVVY DELIGHT 14.6% 6.84 9
4 2 SUPER AXIOM 8.9% 11.17 1
5 6 HEARTY WISH 6.9% 14.59 8
6 10 GOOD VIEW GLORY 6.3% 15.76 3
7 3 DIVINE ERA 6.2% 16.14 11
8 11 DIAMOND SOARS 5.8% 17.33 12
9 7 MR FUN 5.0% 20.01 10
10 4 MR VALIANT 4.5% 22.44 5
11 5 OVERSUBSCRIBED 4.4% 22.89 7
12 12 PLENTIFUL 1.9% 53.16 4
ACE TALENTNICETOBEMETSAVVY DELIGHTSUPER AXIOM — wonHEARTY WISHGOOD VIEW GLORYDIVINE ERADIAMOND SOARSMR FUNMR VALIANTOVERSUBSCRIBEDPLENTIFUL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 32

PLACE

2 14

9 21

10 58.5

QUINELLA

2,9 87

QUINELLA PLACE

2,9 38

2,10 139

9,10 204

FORECAST

2,9 169

TIERCE

2,9,10 2,293

TRIO

2,9,10 590

FIRST 4

2,9,10,12 3,958

QUARTET

2,9,10,12 40,370

All pools (4 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/11/2 970

2/11/9 433

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

2,11,12/2,9,10 53,584

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17

4TH DOUBLE

11/2 192.5

11/9 85