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Happy Valley · 2023-05-31 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 2200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-31 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALLANT HERO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with SUPER HONG KONG second and BORN THE SAME DAY third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite REACH GOAL finished 7th.

Result

Official · 2.15.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 GALLANT HERO Wire to wire 2.15.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 4 4.0 SH
2 6 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard 9 10.0 SH
3 11 BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/XB B Avdulla · C W Chang 1 17.0 1-3/4
4 7 HAPPY ANGEL B L Hewitson · P C Ng 2 7.1 3-1/2
5 12 HELENE ALLIBOR Closed strongly V/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes 11 38.0 3-3/4
6 2 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 9.9 5-1/4
7 4 REACH GOAL TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 2.8 6
8 8 AI ONE H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 11.0 9-1/2
9 10 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT M Dee · C S Shum 12 26.0 14-3/4
10 5 BULB DRAGON B-/CP1/TT A Badel · C H Yip 7 81.0 18-1/4
11 1 LEGION OF MERIT B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 31.0 19
12 9 DEAR SIBLING B K C Leung · K L Man 10 67.0 19
0 LUCKY DIAMOND · K H Ting

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT HERO2. SUPER HONG KONG+0.1L3. BORN THE SAME DAY+1.75L4. HAPPY ANGEL+3.5L5. HELENE ALLIBOR+3.75L6. WONDER YEARS+5.25L7. REACH GOAL+6L8. AI ONE+9.5L9. REGENCY MASTER+14.75L10. BULB DRAGON+18.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick REACH GOAL (23.0%) finished 7th — the winner GALLANT HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 REACH GOAL 23.0% 4.34 7
2 3 GALLANT HERO 22.3% 4.48 1
3 7 HAPPY ANGEL 15.4% 6.51 4
4 8 AI ONE 9.6% 10.42 8
5 2 WONDER YEARS 6.2% 16.03 6
6 6 SUPER HONG KONG 6.2% 16.07 2
7 12 HELENE ALLIBOR 4.3% 23.02 5
8 10 REGENCY MASTER 4.3% 23.29 9
9 1 LEGION OF MERIT 3.5% 28.56 11
10 11 BORN THE SAME DAY 2.4% 41.28 3
11 9 DEAR SIBLING 1.6% 61.24 12
12 5 BULB DRAGON 1.1% 95.06 10
REACH GOALGALLANT HERO — wonHAPPY ANGELAI ONEWONDER YEARSSUPER HONG KONGHELENE ALLIBORREGENCY MASTERLEGION OF MERITBORN THE SAME DAYDEAR SIBLINGBULB DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 40

PLACE

3 16

6 33.5

11 41

QUINELLA

3,6 342

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 116.5

3,11 116

6,11 370

FORECAST

3,6 631

TIERCE

3,6,11 9,876

TRIO

3,6,11 1,523

FIRST 4

3,6,7,11 2,338

QUARTET

3,6,11,7 50,151

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/3 405.5

4/6 49

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 16.5