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Happy Valley · 2023-05-31 · 19:16

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 2200m Course C+3 11 runners

Result

Official · 2.15.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GALLANT HERO Wire to wire 2.15.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 4 4.0 SH
3 0 BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/XB B Avdulla · C W Chang 1 17.0 1-3/4
4 0 HAPPY ANGEL B L Hewitson · P C Ng 2 7.1 3-1/2
5 0 HELENE ALLIBOR Closed strongly V/TT M F Poon · D A Hayes 11 38.0 3-3/4
6 0 WONDER YEARS Closed strongly B/XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 9.9 5-1/4
7 0 REACH GOAL TT H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 2.8 6
8 0 AI ONE H/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 5 11.0 9-1/2
9 0 REGENCY MASTER Closed strongly B/TT M Dee · C S Shum 12 26.0 14-3/4
10 0 BULB DRAGON B-/CP1/TT A Badel · C H Yip 7 81.0 18-1/4
11 0 LEGION OF MERIT B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 31.0 19
12 0 DEAR SIBLING B K C Leung · K L Man 10 67.0 19
— 0 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard — 10.0 SH
— 0 LUCKY DIAMOND · K H Ting — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-31 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. GALLANT HERO, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by SH, with BORN THE SAME DAY second and HAPPY ANGEL third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite REACH GOAL finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALLANT HERO—3. BORN THE SAME DAY+1.75L4. HAPPY ANGEL+3.5L5. HELENE ALLIBOR+3.75L6. WONDER YEARS+5.25L7. REACH GOAL+6L8. AI ONE+9.5L9. REGENCY MASTER+14.75L10. BULB DRAGON+18.25L11. LEGION OF MERIT+19L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick REACH GOAL (23.0%) finished 7th — the winner GALLANT HERO was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 REACH GOAL 23.0% 4.34 7
2 0 GALLANT HERO 22.3% 4.48 1
3 0 HAPPY ANGEL 15.4% 6.51 4
4 0 AI ONE 9.6% 10.42 8
5 0 WONDER YEARS 6.2% 16.03 6
6 0 SUPER HONG KONG 6.2% 16.07 —
7 0 HELENE ALLIBOR 4.3% 23.02 5
8 0 REGENCY MASTER 4.3% 23.29 9
9 0 LEGION OF MERIT 3.5% 28.56 11
10 0 BORN THE SAME DAY 2.4% 41.28 3
11 0 DEAR SIBLING 1.6% 61.24 12
12 0 BULB DRAGON 1.1% 95.06 10
REACH GOALGALLANT HERO — wonHAPPY ANGELAI ONEWONDER YEARSSUPER HONG KONGHELENE ALLIBORREGENCY MASTERLEGION OF MERITBORN THE SAME DAYDEAR SIBLINGBULB DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 40

PLACE

3 16

6 33.5

11 41

QUINELLA

3,6 342

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 116.5

3,11 116

6,11 370

FORECAST

3,6 631

TIERCE

3,6,11 9,876

TRIO

3,6,11 1,523

FIRST 4

3,6,7,11 2,338

QUARTET

3,6,11,7 50,151

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

4/3 405.5

4/6 49

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 16.5