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Happy Valley · 2023-05-31 · 21:46

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1200m Course C+3 9 runners

Result

Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
2 0 VICTORY SCHOLARS V C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 4.4 3/4
3 0 LUCKY EIGHT K Teetan · P F Yiu 6 4.9 3/4
5 0 SMOKEY BEAR B/XB/TT B Avdulla · K H Ting 2 15.0 1-3/4
6 0 HEROIC MASTER H-/P-/TT H Bowman · F C Lor 7 7.3 2-3/4
7 0 PARTY WARRIOR H Z Purton · K W Lui 4 3.0 2-3/4
9 0 FAMILY FOLKS B A Hamelin · C W Chang 8 34.0 3-1/4
10 0 CHATEAU M Dee · J Size 11 114.0 3-3/4
11 0 NAMJONG SINGS B M F Poon · C S Shum 9 38.0 6-3/4
12 0 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING CP1/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 12 81.0 8-1/2
— 0 POWER KOEPP E M Chadwick · K L Man — 9.2 3/4
— 0 ENDEARED XB1 A Badel · J Size — 52.0 3-1/4
— 0 OUR LUCKY GLORY SR2/TT H Bentley · J Richards — 21.0 1-1/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-05-31 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. VICTORY SCHOLARS, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with LUCKY EIGHT second and SMOKEY BEAR third. The 3.0 favourite PARTY WARRIOR finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
2. VICTORY SCHOLARS+0.75L3. LUCKY EIGHT+0.75L5. SMOKEY BEAR+1.75L6. HEROIC MASTER+2.75L7. PARTY WARRIOR+2.75L9. FAMILY FOLKS+3.25L10. CHATEAU+3.75L11. NAMJONG SINGS+6.75L12. YOU'REMYEVERYTHING+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LUCKY EIGHT 21.2% 4.73 3
2 0 PARTY WARRIOR 19.3% 5.17 7
3 0 VICTORY SCHOLARS 14.5% 6.89 2
4 0 HEROIC MASTER 12.1% 8.25 6
5 0 SMOKEY BEAR 8.7% 11.46 5
6 0 POWER KOEPP 7.8% 12.79 —
7 0 OUR LUCKY GLORY 5.8% 17.14 —
8 0 YOU'REMYEVERYTHING 2.9% 34.89 12
9 0 NAMJONG SINGS 2.3% 43.11 11
10 0 FAMILY FOLKS 2.0% 49.84 9
11 0 CHATEAU 2.0% 50.64 10
12 0 ENDEARED 1.3% 74.92 —
LUCKY EIGHTPARTY WARRIORVICTORY SCHOLARSHEROIC MASTERSMOKEY BEARPOWER KOEPPOUR LUCKY GLORYYOU'REMYEVERYTHINGNAMJONG SINGSFAMILY FOLKSCHATEAUENDEARED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 92.5

PLACE

1 31

3 17.5

10 16.5

QUINELLA

1,10 206

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 87

1,10 68

3,10 42.5

FORECAST

1,10 769

TIERCE

1,10,3 3,221

TRIO

1,3,10 313

FIRST 4

1,3,8,10 1,128

QUARTET

1,10,3,8 31,651

All pools (5 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 21

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,5/1,3,10 24,961

6TH DOUBLE

4/1 286

4/10 22

TRIPLE TRIO

2,9,10/3,4,5/1,3,10 1,947,658

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,9,10/3,4,5/Any Combination 4,620