Happy Valley · 2023-06-14 · 18:46
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-14 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD TO YIELDING going. CONCERTO, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by K H Ting, won by 3-1/2, with BEAUTY NOVA second and VIVA A LA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.2 favourite LIFELINE VISION finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | CONCERTO Closed strongly XB/TT 1.39.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · K H Ting | L Ferraris | K H Ting | 3 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | BEAUTY NOVA TT Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 10 | 10.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | VIVA A LA Led early H-/P/TT A Badel · L Ho | A Badel | L Ho | 12 | 10.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | VALHALLA Closed strongly V-/XB/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 4 | 5.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 10 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE Closed strongly H-/XB1 B Avdulla · D J Hall | B Avdulla | D J Hall | 1 | 25.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY JAI JAI TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 7 | 6.2 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | LIFELINE VISION CP K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 5 | 5.2 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | GLORIOUS LOVER Closed strongly B M Dee · C H Yip | M Dee | C H Yip | 11 | 24.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 6 | MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 8 | 5.4 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 12 | SMILING FACE CP-/SR-/B2/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 2 | 10.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SPEED FORCE C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 6 | 35.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 4 | JOLLY HONOUR B/TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 9 | 29.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | LIFELINE VISION | 17.6% | 5.68 | 7 |
| 2 | 5 | VALHALLA | 16.7% | 5.98 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | BEAUTY NOVA | 13.1% | 7.61 | 2 |
| 4 | 6 | MEDIC ELITE | 10.2% | 9.77 | 9 |
| 5 | 9 | SPEED FORCE | 7.5% | 13.35 | 11 |
| 6 | 1 | HAPPY JAI JAI | 6.8% | 14.76 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | CONCERTO | 6.1% | 16.34 | 1 |
| 8 | 11 | VIVA A LA | 5.3% | 18.83 | 3 |
| 9 | 12 | SMILING FACE | 5.0% | 20.04 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | GLORIOUS LOVER | 4.3% | 23.39 | 8 |
| 11 | 4 | JOLLY HONOUR | 3.8% | 26.55 | 12 |
| 12 | 10 | YEE CHEONG BRAVE | 3.6% | 27.96 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 132.5
PLACE
3 41
7 35.5
11 44
QUINELLA
3,7 687
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 227.5
3,11 284.5
7,11 196
FORECAST
3,7 1,554
TIERCE
3,7,11 18,238
TRIO
3,7,11 2,828
FIRST 4
3,5,7,11 4,829
QUARTET
3,7,11,5 125,529
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 24.5
A2 —