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Happy Valley · 2023-06-14 · 20:17

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 9 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 JOYFUL HUNTER XB1 1.09.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 16.0 2
2 0 MODEST GENTLEMAN P/TT M L Yeung · L Ho 5 12.0 2
3 0 SUPER WINNER TT A Hamelin · C H Yip 4 13.0 3-1/2
4 0 ISLAND SURPRISE B2/TT K C Leung · K L Man 7 25.0 3-1/2
5 0 TELECOM SPIRIT B M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 11 92.0 5
6 0 SUPER DOBBIN B M F Poon · A T Millard 3 36.0 5-1/4
7 0 HAPPY TRIO B H Bentley · D J Whyte 12 17.0 5-1/2
8 0 MULTISUPER L Hewitson · P F Yiu 1 2.0 5-1/2
11 0 STARRY NIGHT B/TT M Dee · D A Hayes 2 6.0 7-1/4
— 0 ENDEARED XB A Badel · J Size — 32.0 6
— 0 CIRCUIT BOOMING K Teetan · A S Cruz — — —
— 0 HAPPY UNITED P/TT Z Purton · J Richards — 5.7 6

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-14 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. JOYFUL HUNTER, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 2, with MODEST GENTLEMAN second and SUPER WINNER third. The 2.0 favourite MULTISUPER finished 8th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JOYFUL HUNTER—2. MODEST GENTLEMAN+2L3. SUPER WINNER+3.5L4. ISLAND SURPRISE+3.5L5. TELECOM SPIRIT+5L6. SUPER DOBBIN+5.25L7. HAPPY TRIO+5.5L8. MULTISUPER+5.5L11. STARRY NIGHT+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MULTISUPER (31.9%) finished 8th — the winner JOYFUL HUNTER was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MULTISUPER 31.9% 3.14 8
2 0 STARRY NIGHT 15.2% 6.58 11
3 0 HAPPY UNITED 14.7% 6.80 —
4 0 HAPPY TRIO 9.4% 10.67 7
5 0 JOYFUL HUNTER 7.2% 13.91 1
6 0 SUPER DOBBIN 5.2% 19.13 6
7 0 MODEST GENTLEMAN 5.0% 19.85 2
8 0 ISLAND SURPRISE 4.0% 24.72 4
9 0 SUPER WINNER 3.7% 26.95 3
10 0 ENDEARED 2.3% 43.92 —
11 0 TELECOM SPIRIT 1.3% 74.37 5
MULTISUPERSTARRY NIGHTHAPPY UNITEDHAPPY TRIOJOYFUL HUNTER — wonSUPER DOBBINMODEST GENTLEMANISLAND SURPRISESUPER WINNERENDEAREDTELECOM SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 165.5

PLACE

3 38.5

7 40

12 25.5

QUINELLA

7,12 734.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,7 266

3,12 215

7,12 210.5

FORECAST

7,12 1,561

TIERCE

7,12,3 20,553

TRIO

3,7,12 3,488

FIRST 4

3,7,9,12 8,471

QUARTET

7,12,3,9 173,825

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 29.5

3RD DOUBLE

5/7 332.5

5/12 48.5