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Happy Valley · 2023-06-14 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 0.56.97
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 FAST SERVE XB1 0.56.97 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · D J Hall 3 3.5 N
2 0 SERGEANT PEPPER C L Chau · Y S Tsui 1 3.0 N
3 0 HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 2 9.8 2-3/4
4 0 LUCKY GOR B/E/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 12.0 3
5 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY P/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 6 10.0 3
6 0 I GIVE PC/TT A Badel · P C Ng 4 11.0 4-1/4
7 0 GOOD VIEW GLORY A Hamelin · C H Yip 8 21.0 4-1/2
8 0 SAVVY DELIGHT P/TT Z Purton · J Size 10 18.0 4-1/2
9 0 HAPPY HORSE H/TT B Avdulla · K L Man 5 43.0 5
10 0 MULTIMORE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 7 23.0 5-1/4
11 0 INNOCONSTRUCTION TT M Dee · K W Lui 11 21.0 6-1/2
12 0 JAZZ CLUB B- K Teetan · L Ho 12 105.0 6-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-14 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. FAST SERVE, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with SERGEANT PEPPER second and HEARTY WISH third. The 3.0 favourite SERGEANT PEPPER finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FAST SERVE—2. SERGEANT PEPPER+0.05L3. HEARTY WISH+2.75L4. LUCKY GOR+3L5. STRIVE FOR GLORY+3L6. I GIVE+4.25L7. GOOD VIEW GLORY+4.5L8. SAVVY DELIGHT+4.5L9. HAPPY HORSE+5L10. MULTIMORE+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick LUCKY GOR (20.9%) finished 4th — the winner FAST SERVE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 LUCKY GOR 20.9% 4.79 4
2 0 STRIVE FOR GLORY 12.3% 8.10 5
3 0 SERGEANT PEPPER 10.7% 9.34 2
4 0 SAVVY DELIGHT 10.4% 9.62 8
5 0 HEARTY WISH 8.6% 11.62 3
6 0 INNOCONSTRUCTION 8.0% 12.54 11
7 0 GOOD VIEW GLORY 5.7% 17.52 7
8 0 FAST SERVE 5.4% 18.39 1
9 0 I GIVE 4.9% 20.22 6
10 0 HAPPY HORSE 4.8% 20.74 9
11 0 MULTIMORE 4.6% 21.69 10
12 0 JAZZ CLUB 3.6% 28.12 12
LUCKY GORSTRIVE FOR GLORYSERGEANT PEPPERSAVVY DELIGHTHEARTY WISHINNOCONSTRUCTIONGOOD VIEW GLORYFAST SERVE — wonI GIVEHAPPY HORSEMULTIMOREJAZZ CLUB

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 35

PLACE

5 15

6 27

7 13.5

QUINELLA

5,7 59

QUINELLA PLACE

5,6 68

5,7 29

6,7 50.5

FORECAST

5,7 139

TIERCE

5,7,6 583

TRIO

5,6,7 184

FIRST 4

1,5,6,7 272

QUARTET

5,7,6,1 3,413

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

6,7,8/5,6,7 6,538

2ND DOUBLE

7/5 74.5

7/7 22.5

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 16

A2 —