Happy Valley · 2023-06-28 · 18:46

Race 1

Class 3 GOOD 2200m Course C 7 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-28 was Class 3 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. TURIN MASCOT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P C Ng, won by NOSE, with TOTAL POWER second and ABOVE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite ABOVE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 2.15.00

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	5	TURIN MASCOT Closed strongly SR/TT 2.15.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P C Ng	Z Purton	P C Ng	5	123 lb	4.0	NOSE
2	7	TOTAL POWER Closed strongly B K Teetan · D J Hall	K Teetan	D J Hall	2	120 lb	5.3	NOSE
3	2	ABOVE Closed strongly B/TT H Bowman · A T Millard	H Bowman	A T Millard	4	128 lb	3.2	2-3/4
4	1	PACKING HURRICANE TT H Bentley · C Fownes	H Bentley	C Fownes	1	133 lb	5.3	2-3/4
5	4	SERANGOON Closed strongly H/TT M Dee · A S Cruz	M Dee	A S Cruz	7	123 lb	18.0	7-3/4
6	6	HIT THE SHOT Led early TT A Hamelin · J Size	A Hamelin	J Size	6	121 lb	13.0	9
7	3	SWAN BAY B C Y Ho · W Y So	C Y Ho	W Y So	3	127 lb	6.3	9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23

The model's top pick TURIN MASCOT (34.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	TURIN MASCOT	34.1%	2.93	1	4.0
2	1	PACKING HURRICANE	26.5%	3.78	4	5.3
3	7	TOTAL POWER	13.0%	7.71	2	5.3
4	3	SWAN BAY	12.0%	8.32	7	6.3
5	2	ABOVE	8.4%	11.95	3	3.2
6	4	SERANGOON	3.7%	27.22	5	18.0
7	6	HIT THE SHOT	2.4%	42.13	6	13.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 40.5

PLACE

2 11.5

5 15.5

7 22

QUINELLA

5,7 130.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 25.5

2,7 35

5,7 41.5

FORECAST

5,7 286

TIERCE

5,7,2 584

TRIO

2,5,7 89

FIRST 4

1,2,5,7 85

QUARTET

5,7,2,1 2,257

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 24.5

A2 —

A3 —

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Happy Valley 2200m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99