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Happy Valley · 2023-06-28 · 22:52

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C 8 runners

Result

Official · 1.09.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 WONDER KIT CP1 1.09.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 2.8 2-1/2
2 0 REWARD SMILE TT Z Purton · J Size 10 5.2 2-1/2
4 0 COPARTNER AMBITION B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 12 17.0 4-1/4
6 0 MAGIC PHOENIX TT L Hewitson · K H Ting 2 11.0 5-1/4
7 0 VICTORY SCHOLARS V L Ferraris · C Fownes 6 11.0 5-1/2
8 0 GORGEOUS VITALITY CP M Chadwick · F C Lor 9 82.0 6-1/4
9 0 E UNIVERSE TT B Avdulla · K L Man 11 65.0 6-3/4
12 0 DESERT STAR SR/TT1 K C Leung · D A Hayes 4 31.0 10
— 0 RED ELEGANCE XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards — 22.0 3
— 0 SUPERB CAPITALIST H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz — 5.0 7-1/2
— 0 PHOENIX LIGHT H/TT H Bowman · C H Yip — 12.0 5-1/4
— 0 LESLIE B M Dee · P F Yiu — 17.0 7

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-28 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WONDER KIT, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/2, with REWARD SMILE second and COPARTNER AMBITION third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WONDER KIT—2. REWARD SMILE+2.5L4. COPARTNER AMBITION+4.25L6. MAGIC PHOENIX+5.25L7. VICTORY SCHOLARS+5.5L8. GORGEOUS VITALITY+6.25L9. E UNIVERSE+6.75L12. DESERT STAR+10L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick REWARD SMILE (22.2%) finished 2nd — the winner WONDER KIT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 REWARD SMILE 22.2% 4.50 2
2 0 SUPERB CAPITALIST 16.6% 6.04 —
3 0 WONDER KIT 15.3% 6.52 1
4 0 VICTORY SCHOLARS 8.9% 11.20 7
5 0 MAGIC PHOENIX 8.1% 12.34 6
6 0 RED ELEGANCE 6.6% 15.13 —
7 0 PHOENIX LIGHT 5.6% 17.78 —
8 0 E UNIVERSE 4.7% 21.15 9
9 0 LESLIE 4.2% 23.96 —
10 0 COPARTNER AMBITION 3.9% 25.69 4
11 0 GORGEOUS VITALITY 2.6% 37.90 8
12 0 DESERT STAR 1.1% 87.18 12
REWARD SMILESUPERB CAPITALISTWONDER KIT — wonVICTORY SCHOLARSMAGIC PHOENIXRED ELEGANCEPHOENIX LIGHTE UNIVERSELESLIECOPARTNER AMBITIONGORGEOUS VITALITYDESERT STAR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 28.5

PLACE

2 19

6 14.5

12 54.5

QUINELLA

2,6 89

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 38.5

2,12 170

6,12 126.5

FORECAST

6,2 166

TIERCE

6,2,12 2,518

TRIO

2,6,12 434

FIRST 4

2,6,10,12 1,913

QUARTET

6,2,12,10 24,858

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/9/2 135

1/9/6 825

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A3 —

A1 18

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,9,10/2,6,12 296,564

8TH DOUBLE

9/2 74

9/6 349

SIX UP

9/4/6/1/9/6 131,937

9,10/4,5,11/6,8/1,10/9,10/2,6 1,422

3 [C Y Ho] —

10 [P C Ng] —