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Happy Valley · 2023-06-28 · 19:47

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. YEABOI, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by C H Yip, won by SH, with DURHAM STAR second and HAPPY ANGEL third. The winner led throughout. The 3.5 favourite GET THE MONIES finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.41.25
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 YEABOI Wire to wire B-/TT 1.41.25 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · C H Yip 3 16.0 SH
2 5 DURHAM STAR Closed strongly SR/XB L Ferraris · D J Whyte 7 5.4 SH
3 9 HAPPY ANGEL Closed strongly B M Chadwick · P C Ng 9 4.9 N
4 2 LEAN HERO Closed strongly CP/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 12 13.0 N
5 8 BEAUTY MISSION Closed strongly SR/TT M Dee · F C Lor 10 15.0 N
6 6 SPANGLE FORTUNE CP/TT M F Poon · K L Man 1 29.0 1-1/4
7 4 CHARMANDER B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 6 16.0 1-1/4
8 3 PEGASUS HERO L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 2 11.0 1-3/4
9 12 GET THE MONIES XB B Avdulla · K W Lui 4 3.5 2-1/2
10 11 COPARTNER ERA B L Currie · W Y So 5 51.0 2-1/2
11 1 BULLETPROOF Closed strongly V2 K C Leung · P F Yiu 11 17.0 4-3/4
12 7 SPARKY STAR B C L Chau · T P Yung 8 13.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YEABOI2. DURHAM STAR+0.1L3. HAPPY ANGEL+0.05L4. LEAN HERO+0.05L5. BEAUTY MISSION+0.05L6. SPANGLE FORTUNE+1.25L7. CHARMANDER+1.25L8. PEGASUS HERO+1.75L9. GET THE MONIES+2.5L10. COPARTNER ERA+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick GET THE MONIES (15.9%) finished 9th — the winner YEABOI was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 GET THE MONIES 15.9% 6.30 9
2 2 LEAN HERO 15.2% 6.57 4
3 9 HAPPY ANGEL 13.6% 7.33 3
4 4 CHARMANDER 12.4% 8.08 7
5 5 DURHAM STAR 10.8% 9.23 2
6 3 PEGASUS HERO 7.2% 13.80 8
7 8 BEAUTY MISSION 7.1% 14.07 5
8 7 SPARKY STAR 5.5% 18.18 12
9 6 SPANGLE FORTUNE 4.4% 22.53 6
10 1 BULLETPROOF 3.5% 28.49 11
11 10 YEABOI 2.4% 41.89 1
12 11 COPARTNER ERA 1.9% 53.67 10
GET THE MONIESLEAN HEROHAPPY ANGELCHARMANDERDURHAM STARPEGASUS HEROBEAUTY MISSIONSPARKY STARSPANGLE FORTUNEBULLETPROOFYEABOI — wonCOPARTNER ERA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 161.5

PLACE

5 19

9 18.5

10 49.5

QUINELLA

5,10 539.5

QUINELLA PLACE

5,9 46

5,10 163

9,10 167.5

FORECAST

10,5 1,234

TIERCE

10,5,9 7,019

TRIO

5,9,10 729

FIRST 4

2,5,9,10 1,911

QUARTET

10,5,9,2 48,919

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,12/5,9,10 82,835

2ND DOUBLE

12/5 387.5

12/10 2,521

3 PICK 1

A3 26

A1

A2