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Happy Valley · 2023-06-28 · 20:48

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-28 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. TURQUOISE ALPHA, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by P C Ng, won by 1, with GOLD TACK second and STURDY RUBY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite GOLD TACK finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.40.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 TURQUOISE ALPHA Closed strongly CP/XB 1.40.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · P C Ng 4 12.0 1
2 5 GOLD TACK Closed strongly CP A Badel · A T Millard 3 4.0 1
3 6 STURDY RUBY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · K L Man 9 4.6 1-1/2
4 7 NICE BIRDIE B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 5 10.0 1-3/4
5 10 M UNICORN H/P/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 7.8 2-1/2
6 1 PACKING SUCCEEDER Closed strongly TT1 K C Leung · L Ho 2 8.2 2-3/4
7 12 DAZZLING FELLOW B/XB M Dee · D J Hall 1 15.0 3-1/4
8 8 AMAZING BOY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · C W Chang 12 34.0 3-3/4
9 3 HELENE WISDOM STAR B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 11.0 4
10 9 BABY Led early B/TT L Ferraris · K H Ting 8 23.0 5-1/2
11 2 HAPPY FOR ALL B/H/TT Z Purton · J Richards 10 9.7 6
11 CORDYCEPS ONE K Teetan · K W Lui

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TURQUOISE ALPHA2. GOLD TACK+1L3. STURDY RUBY+1.5L4. NICE BIRDIE+1.75L5. M UNICORN+2.5L6. PACKING SUCCEEDER+2.75L7. DAZZLING FELLOW+3.25L8. AMAZING BOY+3.75L9. HELENE WISDOM STAR+4L10. BABY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HAPPY FOR ALL (18.6%) finished 11th — the winner TURQUOISE ALPHA was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 HAPPY FOR ALL 18.6% 5.37 11
2 5 GOLD TACK 17.1% 5.85 2
3 6 STURDY RUBY 10.3% 9.67 3
4 7 NICE BIRDIE 9.0% 11.12 4
5 10 M UNICORN 9.0% 11.17 5
6 4 TURQUOISE ALPHA 8.7% 11.51 1
7 12 DAZZLING FELLOW 7.2% 13.94 7
8 3 HELENE WISDOM STAR 6.0% 16.60 9
9 9 BABY 5.6% 17.93 10
10 8 AMAZING BOY 4.4% 22.59 8
11 1 PACKING SUCCEEDER 4.1% 24.23 6
HAPPY FOR ALLGOLD TACKSTURDY RUBYNICE BIRDIEM UNICORNTURQUOISE ALPHA — wonDAZZLING FELLOWHELENE WISDOM STARBABYAMAZING BOYPACKING SUCCEEDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 121.5

PLACE

4 40.5

5 15.5

6 15.5

QUINELLA

4,5 217

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 81

4,6 96

5,6 35.5

FORECAST

4,5 553

TIERCE

4,5,6 2,624

TRIO

4,5,6 329

FIRST 4

4,5,6,7 653

QUARTET

4,5,6,7 18,448

All pools (4 more)

1ST TREBLE

10/9/4 11,840

10/9/5,11 261

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

9,10,12/4>5,6,11 25,131

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 16

A1

4TH DOUBLE

9/4 356

9/5,11 10.5