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Happy Valley · 2023-06-28 · 22:18

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2023-06-28 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. SPLENDID LIVING, ridden by M Dee and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2, with QUANTUM PATCH second and ZONE D third. The winner led throughout. The 3.9 favourite SO WE JOY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.39.99
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SPLENDID LIVING Wire to wire CP/TT 1.39.99 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Dee · P F Yiu 8 8.4 2
2 10 QUANTUM PATCH Closed strongly TT1 K Teetan · P C Ng 10 17.0 2
3 3 ZONE D Closed strongly TT B Avdulla · J Size 4 13.0 3-1/2
4 6 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly H/SR/XB/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 2 7.9 4-1/4
5 12 TOP TOP TEA A Badel · C H Yip 5 32.0 4-1/2
6 4 SO WE JOY Closed strongly CP2/TT Z Purton · C W Chang 7 3.9 4-1/2
7 7 STAR CONTACT CP/TT H Bowman · D A Hayes 1 4.5 4-3/4
8 1 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT K C Leung · K W Lui 6 14.0 5-1/4
9 5 LOYAL BABY TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 3 6.8 6
10 8 OUR LUCKY GLORY Closed strongly SR/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 12 16.0 6-1/2
11 11 THE HULK L Currie · C Fownes 11 40.0 7-1/2
12 2 NOT USUAL STAR H/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 9 36.0 10

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPLENDID LIVING2. QUANTUM PATCH+2L3. ZONE D+3.5L4. IVY LEAGUE+4.25L5. TOP TOP TEA+4.5L6. SO WE JOY+4.5L7. STAR CONTACT+4.75L8. RISING FROM ASHES+5.25L9. LOYAL BABY+6L10. OUR LUCKY GLORY+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick STAR CONTACT (19.8%) finished 7th — the winner SPLENDID LIVING was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 STAR CONTACT 19.8% 5.04 7
2 6 IVY LEAGUE 12.8% 7.82 4
3 5 LOYAL BABY 12.1% 8.25 9
4 9 SPLENDID LIVING 11.1% 8.98 1
5 4 SO WE JOY 9.7% 10.29 6
6 8 OUR LUCKY GLORY 7.0% 14.20 10
7 1 RISING FROM ASHES 6.4% 15.56 8
8 12 TOP TOP TEA 5.8% 17.23 5
9 2 NOT USUAL STAR 5.2% 19.08 12
10 11 THE HULK 4.9% 20.52 11
11 3 ZONE D 3.3% 29.96 3
12 10 QUANTUM PATCH 1.7% 59.17 2
STAR CONTACTIVY LEAGUELOYAL BABYSPLENDID LIVING — wonSO WE JOYOUR LUCKY GLORYRISING FROM ASHESTOP TOP TEANOT USUAL STARTHE HULKZONE DQUANTUM PATCH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 84

PLACE

3 34

9 28.5

10 42.5

QUINELLA

9,10 801

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 188.5

3,10 348.5

9,10 268

FORECAST

9,10 1,567

TIERCE

9,10,3 19,653

TRIO

3,9,10 4,574

FIRST 4

3,6,9,10 6,586

QUARTET

9,10,3,6 200,563

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 20.5

A1

A3

7TH DOUBLE

1/9 172

1/10 224