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Sha Tin · 2023-07-01 · 16:03

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-01 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. MAXIMIZE HEART, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-1/4, with MIRACLES second and FORTUNE MASTER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 MAXIMIZE HEART Closed strongly 1.22.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C H Yip 1 3.2 1-1/4
2 4 MIRACLES Led early B M F Poon · K L Man 3 11.0 1-1/4
3 8 FORTUNE MASTER Closed strongly B/XB/TT M Dee · J Richards 5 25.0 2
4 6 DOUBLE SHOW Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · D J Whyte 13 51.0 2
5 5 ERNEST FEELING Closed strongly B/TT A Hamelin · R Gibson 9 24.0 2-1/4
6 9 VALHALLA XB/TT A Badel · C Fownes 4 8.6 3-1/4
7 11 WIN WIN CHARITY B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 2 36.0 3-3/4
8 3 FINGERS CROSSED B/H/TT Z Purton · J Size 11 6.6 4-1/2
9 12 TRAVEL GLORY Closed strongly B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 14 14.0 5-1/4
10 14 VIVA A LA P/TT M Chadwick · L Ho 7 9.3 5-3/4
11 10 YOUNG SPARKLE Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard 10 5.5 5-3/4
12 7 HAPPY MATADOR XB/B2 H Bentley · C W Chang 6 86.0 7-1/4
13 13 GIVE WAY PLEASE H-/B/XB/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 12 56.0 11
14 2 PRECISION GOAL P/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 8 27.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAXIMIZE HEART2. MIRACLES+1.25L3. FORTUNE MASTER+2L4. DOUBLE SHOW+2L5. ERNEST FEELING+2.25L6. VALHALLA+3.25L7. WIN WIN CHARITY+3.75L8. FINGERS CROSSED+4.5L9. TRAVEL GLORY+5.25L10. VIVA A LA+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MAXIMIZE HEART (16.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MAXIMIZE HEART 16.5% 6.07 1
2 3 FINGERS CROSSED 14.2% 7.02 8
3 11 WIN WIN CHARITY 12.9% 7.74 7
4 9 VALHALLA 10.4% 9.61 6
5 10 YOUNG SPARKLE 8.4% 11.84 11
6 4 MIRACLES 7.1% 14.15 2
7 14 VIVA A LA 5.3% 18.73 10
8 8 FORTUNE MASTER 5.2% 19.37 3
9 2 PRECISION GOAL 5.0% 19.92 14
10 12 TRAVEL GLORY 4.3% 23.02 9
11 5 ERNEST FEELING 3.9% 25.49 5
12 6 DOUBLE SHOW 2.8% 35.50 4
13 13 GIVE WAY PLEASE 2.4% 41.03 13
14 7 HAPPY MATADOR 1.4% 71.79 12
MAXIMIZE HEART — wonFINGERS CROSSEDWIN WIN CHARITYVALHALLAYOUNG SPARKLEMIRACLESVIVA A LAFORTUNE MASTERPRECISION GOALTRAVEL GLORYERNEST FEELINGDOUBLE SHOWGIVE WAY PLEASEHAPPY MATADOR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 32.5

PLACE

1 14.5

4 34.5

8 65.5

QUINELLA

1,4 174

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 72

1,8 160

4,8 417.5

FORECAST

1,4 316

TIERCE

1,4,8 3,341

TRIO

1,4,8 1,306

FIRST 4

1,4,6,8 9,683

QUARTET

1,4,8,6 114,319

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 23.5

A2

A3