Sha Tin · 2023-07-01 · 17:41
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-01 was Class 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. SWORD POINT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by F C Lor, won by 1-1/4, with MEANINGFUL STAR second and BUTTERFIELD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SWORD POINT Closed strongly CP2 2.01.56 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 2.6 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | MEANINGFUL STAR Closed strongly B M F Poon · K W Lui | M F Poon | K W Lui | 2 | 21.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | BUTTERFIELD Closed strongly CP/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 3 | 18.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 5 | RISE BRETHREN Closed strongly CP-/TT M Dee · J Richards | M Dee | J Richards | 5 | 36.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | CHAMPION DRAGON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 7 | 14.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 6 | 12 | SWEET ENCOUNTER Closed strongly B B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 14.0 | 4 |
| 7 | 11 | LA CITY BLANCHE Closed strongly H/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 8 | 23.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 4 | FIVE G PATCH Closed strongly TT A Badel · A S Cruz | A Badel | A S Cruz | 12 | 8.4 | 4 |
| 9 | 1 | COLUMBUS COUNTY V1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 6 | 36.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 10 | ALACRITY Closed strongly XB1/TT H Bentley · J Richards | H Bentley | J Richards | 11 | 37.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 13 | CHING L Hewitson · C W Chang | L Hewitson | C W Chang | 14 | 4.5 | 7-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | NATURAL STORM Closed strongly B K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 9 | 12.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 13 | 6 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S B K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 1 | 35.0 | 14-3/4 |
| 14 | 8 | ERIMO Led early B A Hamelin · J Size | A Hamelin | J Size | 13 | 71.0 | 21-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | SWORD POINT | 24.8% | 4.04 | 1 |
| 2 | 13 | CHING | 12.3% | 8.13 | 11 |
| 3 | 9 | MEANINGFUL STAR | 11.4% | 8.78 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | CHAMPION DRAGON | 6.4% | 15.64 | 5 |
| 5 | 2 | BUTTERFIELD | 6.1% | 16.49 | 3 |
| 6 | 10 | ALACRITY | 5.9% | 16.88 | 10 |
| 7 | 4 | FIVE G PATCH | 5.3% | 18.82 | 8 |
| 8 | 11 | LA CITY BLANCHE | 4.6% | 21.75 | 7 |
| 9 | 14 | NATURAL STORM | 4.6% | 21.88 | 12 |
| 10 | 5 | RISE BRETHREN | 4.5% | 22.23 | 4 |
| 11 | 8 | ERIMO | 4.4% | 22.75 | 14 |
| 12 | 1 | COLUMBUS COUNTY | 3.9% | 25.58 | 9 |
| 13 | 6 | ALL FOR ST PAUL'S | 3.3% | 30.61 | 13 |
| 14 | 12 | SWEET ENCOUNTER | 2.6% | 38.07 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 26.5
PLACE
2 40.5
3 13.5
9 53.5
QUINELLA
3,9 278
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 74.5
2,9 252.5
3,9 111
FORECAST
3,9 387
TIERCE
3,9,2 2,991
TRIO
2,3,9 868
FIRST 4
2,3,5,9 2,751
QUARTET
3,9,2,5 34,880
All pools (3 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,3,14/2,3,9 99,895
3 PICK 1
A1 16.5
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
3/3 351
3/9 263