Sha Tin · 2023-07-01 · 17:03
Race 3
Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LET'S DO IT, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by 1-1/2, with BABY CRYSTAL second and NOBLE ONE third. The 2.3 favourite BABY CRYSTAL finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | LET'S DO IT CP 1.09.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 1 | 8.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | BABY CRYSTAL TT1 Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 11 | 2.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | NOBLE ONE B/XB1/TT- A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 10 | 48.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | HAPPY TRIO B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 7 | 24.0 | 2 |
| 5 | 2 | BEATO B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz | Y L Chung | A S Cruz | 13 | 164.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | SMART FIGHTER K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 6 | 3.5 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 5 | SUPER WINNER TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 8 | 23.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS B/TT M L Yeung · Y S Tsui | M L Yeung | Y S Tsui | 2 | 50.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 9 | 13 | AMIGOS GIGGLE C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 9 | 9.8 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | JAZZ CLUB K H Chan · L Ho | K H Chan | L Ho | 5 | 211.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | COURIER MAGIC CP-/H1/TT M F Poon · J Richards | M F Poon | J Richards | 14 | 250.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 11 | DUBLIN STAR B/TT B Avdulla · K L Man | B Avdulla | K L Man | 3 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 4 | SPEEDY SMARTIE B1/TT M Dee · T P Yung | M Dee | T P Yung | 12 | 47.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | MAN LIGHT XB1/TT1 M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 4 | 21.0 | 17-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BABY CRYSTAL | 34.0% | 2.95 | 2 |
| 2 | 13 | AMIGOS GIGGLE | 12.9% | 7.76 | 9 |
| 3 | 3 | LET'S DO IT | 10.6% | 9.48 | 1 |
| 4 | 7 | SMART FIGHTER | 8.4% | 11.97 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | MAN LIGHT | 5.2% | 19.25 | 14 |
| 6 | 9 | HAPPY TRIO | 5.2% | 19.36 | 4 |
| 7 | 5 | SUPER WINNER | 5.0% | 19.81 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | DUBLIN STAR | 4.7% | 21.35 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | SPEEDY SMARTIE | 4.5% | 22.18 | 13 |
| 10 | 14 | NOBLE ONE | 4.3% | 23.19 | 3 |
| 11 | 2 | BEATO | 1.8% | 55.55 | 5 |
| 12 | 12 | EIGHT TRIGRAMS | 1.4% | 69.98 | 8 |
| 13 | 10 | JAZZ CLUB | 1.2% | 81.21 | 10 |
| 14 | 8 | COURIER MAGIC | 0.9% | 113.40 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 80.5
PLACE
1 11.5
3 23.5
14 80.5
QUINELLA
1,3 95
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 39.5
1,14 164.5
3,14 379.5
FORECAST
3,1 302
TIERCE
3,1,14 5,506
TRIO
1,3,14 853
FIRST 4
1,3,9,14 3,750
QUARTET
3,1,14,9 58,774
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE
3/1 27
3/3 419.5
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 33.5