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Sha Tin · 2023-07-01 · 16:32

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIA VANES, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with STRATHPEFFER second and SWEET DIAMOND third. The 4.2 favourite DREAM PURSUER finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.67
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CALIFORNIA VANES B/TT 1.09.67 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz 11 4.4 3/4
2 13 STRATHPEFFER B K Teetan · D J Whyte 9 4.5 3/4
3 14 SWEET DIAMOND B- H T Mo · P F Yiu 7 50.0 2-1/2
4 6 MORE RICE B1 M Dee · T P Yung 2 21.0 3
5 8 SOO FRESH TT M Chadwick · W Y So 1 20.0 4-1/2
6 1 COBHFIELD B A Hamelin · A T Millard 12 14.0 5
7 4 DREAM PURSUER H Bowman · K L Man 13 4.2 5-1/4
8 12 HERCULES B/TT C Wong · C H Yip 5 70.0 5-1/2
9 11 RATTAN WORLD B/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 6 32.0 6
10 10 LUCKY QUALITY K H Chan · C Fownes 3 45.0 6
11 7 COOL BLUE TT K C Leung · F C Lor 14 13.0 7-1/2
12 5 LUCKY FUN M L Yeung · L Ho 4 19.0 8-1/4
13 2 NAMJONG SINGS B Y L Chung · C S Shum 8 12.0 9-1/4
9 THE MULTIPLIER B-/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 10 13.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIA VANES2. STRATHPEFFER+0.75L3. SWEET DIAMOND+2.5L4. MORE RICE+3L5. SOO FRESH+4.5L6. COBHFIELD+5L7. DREAM PURSUER+5.25L8. HERCULES+5.5L9. RATTAN WORLD+6L10. LUCKY QUALITY+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick DREAM PURSUER (15.1%) finished 7th — the winner CALIFORNIA VANES was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 DREAM PURSUER 15.1% 6.64 7
2 13 STRATHPEFFER 14.0% 7.12 2
3 11 RATTAN WORLD 12.7% 7.89 9
4 7 COOL BLUE 12.3% 8.11 11
5 1 COBHFIELD 8.2% 12.22 6
6 6 MORE RICE 6.8% 14.74 4
7 3 CALIFORNIA VANES 6.5% 15.31 1
8 8 SOO FRESH 5.6% 17.81 5
9 2 NAMJONG SINGS 5.0% 20.09 13
10 12 HERCULES 4.6% 21.93 8
11 5 LUCKY FUN 4.2% 24.05 12
12 10 LUCKY QUALITY 2.7% 37.12 10
13 14 SWEET DIAMOND 2.4% 41.86 3
DREAM PURSUERSTRATHPEFFERRATTAN WORLDCOOL BLUECOBHFIELDMORE RICECALIFORNIA VANES — wonSOO FRESHNAMJONG SINGSHERCULESLUCKY FUNLUCKY QUALITYSWEET DIAMOND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 44.5

PLACE

3 17.5

13 18.5

14 140

QUINELLA

3,13 119.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,13 47.5

3,14 367

13,14 398.5

FORECAST

3,13 252

TIERCE

3,13,14 8,475

TRIO

3,13,14 1,430

FIRST 4

3,6,13,14 9,184

QUARTET

3,13,14,6 128,777

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE

1/3 197

1/13 29.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,4,8/3,13,14 348,183

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 26

A3