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Sha Tin · 2023-07-01 · 18:17

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-01 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. SPARKLING KNIGHT, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by C H Yip, won by 1-3/4, with FLYING DRAGON second and MIDAS TOUCH third. The 5.4 favourite FLYING DRAGON finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.56.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SPARKLING KNIGHT 0.56.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · C H Yip 10 12.0 1-3/4
2 1 FLYING DRAGON V-/XB/B2 Z Purton · C H Yip 12 5.4 1-3/4
3 6 MIDAS TOUCH E H Bowman · J Size 1 5.9 3
4 12 SUPER FAST DRAGON CP/TT L Currie · J Richards 13 37.0 3
5 5 HEALTHY HEALTHY H/TT- C L Chau · P C Ng 11 10.0 4-1/4
6 4 TALENTS SUPREMO XB L Hewitson · R Gibson 14 12.0 5-1/4
7 2 AWESOME TREASURE H-/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 4 5.6 6-1/4
8 7 SPARKLING DOLPHIN Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 5 7.6 6-1/2
9 11 MR VALIANT K Teetan · L Ho 3 17.0 7
10 10 UNIVERSAL PURSUIT XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 6 6.5 7-1/4
11 14 HAPPY HORSE H/TT M L Yeung · K L Man 7 76.0 7-3/4
12 9 YOO YOO KNIGHT B- K C Leung · T P Yung 2 105.0 8-3/4
13 8 MASSIVE TALENT B1 M Dee · T P Yung 9 37.0 10-3/4
14 13 CHILL WAY H/TT A Badel · W Y So 8 69.0 11-1/4
0 MASTER AGILITY K C Leung · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SPARKLING KNIGHT2. FLYING DRAGON+1.75L3. MIDAS TOUCH+3L4. SUPER FAST DRAGON+3L5. HEALTHY HEALTHY+4.25L6. TALENTS SUPREMO+5.25L7. AWESOME TREASURE+6.25L8. SPARKLING DOLPHIN+6.5L9. MR VALIANT+7L10. UNIVERSAL PURSUIT+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MIDAS TOUCH (32.2%) finished 3rd — the winner SPARKLING KNIGHT was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 MIDAS TOUCH 32.2% 3.11 3
2 10 UNIVERSAL PURSUIT 11.0% 9.13 10
3 2 AWESOME TREASURE 10.1% 9.89 7
4 7 SPARKLING DOLPHIN 8.2% 12.24 8
5 1 FLYING DRAGON 7.7% 13.03 2
6 11 MR VALIANT 6.0% 16.73 9
7 3 SPARKLING KNIGHT 5.5% 18.22 1
8 8 MASSIVE TALENT 4.7% 21.47 13
9 4 TALENTS SUPREMO 4.3% 23.03 6
10 5 HEALTHY HEALTHY 3.8% 26.49 5
11 14 HAPPY HORSE 2.2% 45.65 11
12 12 SUPER FAST DRAGON 1.8% 56.18 4
13 13 CHILL WAY 1.6% 64.27 14
14 9 YOO YOO KNIGHT 1.2% 85.56 12
MIDAS TOUCHUNIVERSAL PURSUITAWESOME TREASURESPARKLING DOLPHINFLYING DRAGONMR VALIANTSPARKLING KNIGHT — wonMASSIVE TALENTTALENTS SUPREMOHEALTHY HEALTHYHAPPY HORSESUPER FAST DRAGONCHILL WAYYOO YOO KNIGHT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 124

PLACE

1 20

3 42.5

6 24

QUINELLA

1,3 307

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 122.5

1,6 64.5

3,6 193.5

FORECAST

3,1 949

TIERCE

3,1,6 5,743

TRIO

1,3,6 778

FIRST 4

1,3,6,12 4,765

QUARTET

3,1,6,12 137,699

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

3/3/1 333

3/3/3 4,123

3 PICK 1

A1

A2

A3 17.5

4TH DOUBLE

3/1 22

3/3 352.5