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Sha Tin · 2023-07-01 · 21:03

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 13 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUPERB BOY Closed strongly TT 1.21.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 9.4 1-1/2
2 0 WINNER METHOD Led early B/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 7 24.0 1-1/2
3 0 FLAMINGO TRILLION K C Leung · F C Lor 12 3.6 1-1/2
4 0 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · L Ho 9 9.4 2-3/4
5 0 THE RUNNER V M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 57.0 3-3/4
6 0 ROMAN TURBO Closed strongly XB-/TT2 K Teetan · W Y So 14 11.0 4
7 0 HYPER DRAGON BALL TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 1 16.0 5-1/4
8 0 NEVER TOO SOON H/CP1/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 3 6.7 5-1/4
9 0 CZARSON B/TT2 M Dee · P F Yiu 2 19.0 6-1/4
10 0 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes 5 9.3 6-3/4
11 0 HOSS XB/TT H Bowman · J Richards 6 6.8 7-1/2
13 0 GALLANT CROWN B A Hamelin · A T Millard 13 118.0 9
14 0 VIVA HUNTER TT A Badel · K L Man 11 23.0 10-1/4
— 0 NOTORIOUS KING H Bentley · D J Whyte — — —
— 0 FALLON H1/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz — 99.0 8-3/4

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB BOY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with WINNER METHOD second and FLAMINGO TRILLION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite FLAMINGO TRILLION finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB BOY—2. WINNER METHOD+1.5L3. FLAMINGO TRILLION+1.5L4. HAPPY DAILY+2.75L5. THE RUNNER+3.75L6. ROMAN TURBO+4L7. HYPER DRAGON BALL+5.25L8. NEVER TOO SOON+5.25L9. CZARSON+6.25L10. STORM LEGEND+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NEVER TOO SOON (21.8%) finished 8th — the winner SUPERB BOY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 NEVER TOO SOON 21.8% 4.58 8
2 0 STORM LEGEND 13.2% 7.56 10
3 0 FLAMINGO TRILLION 10.9% 9.18 3
4 0 HOSS 10.8% 9.23 11
5 0 SUPERB BOY 8.3% 11.98 1
6 0 HAPPY DAILY 5.0% 19.88 4
7 0 VIVA HUNTER 5.0% 20.05 14
8 0 ROMAN TURBO 4.9% 20.43 6
9 0 WINNER METHOD 4.7% 21.06 2
10 0 FALLON 4.0% 24.71 —
11 0 HYPER DRAGON BALL 3.8% 26.31 7
12 0 CZARSON 3.2% 31.25 9
13 0 THE RUNNER 2.5% 39.39 5
14 0 GALLANT CROWN 1.6% 62.07 13
NEVER TOO SOONSTORM LEGENDFLAMINGO TRILLIONHOSSSUPERB BOY — wonHAPPY DAILYVIVA HUNTERROMAN TURBOWINNER METHODFALLONHYPER DRAGON BALLCZARSONTHE RUNNERGALLANT CROWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 94.5

PLACE

1 67.5

7 31.5

13 16

QUINELLA

1,7 1,223

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 326

1,13 150

7,13 73

FORECAST

7,1 2,228

TIERCE

7,1,13 10,346

TRIO

1,7,13 977

FIRST 4

1,7,8,13 2,752

QUARTET

7,1,13,8 92,927

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

2/4/1 978

2/4/7 2,605

3 PICK 1

A3 23.5

A2 —

A1 —

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,13/1,7,13 582,030

9TH DOUBLE

4/1 480.5

4/7 1,276

SIX UP

1,3/3,14/4,8/2,6/4,13/1,7 31,289

3/3/4/2/4/7 477,283

12 [C H Yip] —

3 [C Y Ho] —