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Sha Tin · 2023-07-01 · 21:03

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2023-07-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUPERB BOY, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/2, with WINNER METHOD second and FLAMINGO TRILLION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite FLAMINGO TRILLION finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.88
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SUPERB BOY Closed strongly TT 1.21.88 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 9.4 1-1/2
2 1 WINNER METHOD Led early B/TT L Ferraris · C S Shum 7 24.0 1-1/2
3 13 FLAMINGO TRILLION K C Leung · F C Lor 12 3.6 1-1/2
4 8 HAPPY DAILY Closed strongly TT C L Chau · L Ho 9 9.4 2-3/4
5 9 THE RUNNER V M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 57.0 3-3/4
6 14 ROMAN TURBO Closed strongly XB-/TT2 K Teetan · W Y So 14 11.0 4
7 4 HYPER DRAGON BALL TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 1 16.0 5-1/4
8 6 NEVER TOO SOON H/CP1/TT Z Purton · D J Hall 3 6.7 5-1/4
9 12 CZARSON B/TT2 M Dee · P F Yiu 2 19.0 6-1/4
10 5 STORM LEGEND Closed strongly E C W Wong · C Fownes 5 9.3 6-3/4
11 2 HOSS XB/TT H Bowman · J Richards 6 6.8 7-1/2
12 11 FALLON H1/TT1 Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 99.0 8-3/4
13 10 GALLANT CROWN B A Hamelin · A T Millard 13 118.0 9
14 3 VIVA HUNTER TT A Badel · K L Man 11 23.0 10-1/4
0 NOTORIOUS KING H Bentley · D J Whyte

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPERB BOY2. WINNER METHOD+1.5L3. FLAMINGO TRILLION+1.5L4. HAPPY DAILY+2.75L5. THE RUNNER+3.75L6. ROMAN TURBO+4L7. HYPER DRAGON BALL+5.25L8. NEVER TOO SOON+5.25L9. CZARSON+6.25L10. STORM LEGEND+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick NEVER TOO SOON (21.8%) finished 8th — the winner SUPERB BOY was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 NEVER TOO SOON 21.8% 4.58 8
2 5 STORM LEGEND 13.2% 7.56 10
3 13 FLAMINGO TRILLION 10.9% 9.18 3
4 2 HOSS 10.8% 9.23 11
5 7 SUPERB BOY 8.3% 11.98 1
6 8 HAPPY DAILY 5.0% 19.88 4
7 3 VIVA HUNTER 5.0% 20.05 14
8 14 ROMAN TURBO 4.9% 20.43 6
9 1 WINNER METHOD 4.7% 21.06 2
10 11 FALLON 4.0% 24.71 12
11 4 HYPER DRAGON BALL 3.8% 26.31 7
12 12 CZARSON 3.2% 31.25 9
13 9 THE RUNNER 2.5% 39.39 5
14 10 GALLANT CROWN 1.6% 62.07 13
NEVER TOO SOONSTORM LEGENDFLAMINGO TRILLIONHOSSSUPERB BOY — wonHAPPY DAILYVIVA HUNTERROMAN TURBOWINNER METHODFALLONHYPER DRAGON BALLCZARSONTHE RUNNERGALLANT CROWN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 94.5

PLACE

1 67.5

7 31.5

13 16

QUINELLA

1,7 1,223

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 326

1,13 150

7,13 73

FORECAST

7,1 2,228

TIERCE

7,1,13 10,346

TRIO

1,7,13 977

FIRST 4

1,7,8,13 2,752

QUARTET

7,1,13,8 92,927

All pools (5 more)

2ND TREBLE

2/4/1 978

2/4/7 2,605

3 PICK 1

A3 23.5

A2

A1

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,13/1,7,13 582,030

9TH DOUBLE

4/1 480.5

4/7 1,276

SIX UP

1,3/3,14/4,8/2,6/4,13/1,7 31,289

3/3/4/2/4/7 477,283

12 [C H Yip]

3 [C Y Ho]