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Happy Valley · 2023-07-06 · 19:46

Race 3

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-06 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VIVA A LA, ridden by A Badel and trained by L Ho, won by 1, with YOUNG SPARKLE second and THETA HEDGE third. The 3.3 favourite THETA HEDGE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.10.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 VIVA A LA P/TT 1.10.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · L Ho 1 4.2 1
2 9 YOUNG SPARKLE B A Hamelin · A T Millard 8 13.0 1
3 6 THETA HEDGE B/TT Z Purton · K W Lui 5 3.3 1-1/4
4 8 JAZZ STEED TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 15.0 3-1/2
5 5 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY CP/H K C Leung · F C Lor 6 8.8 3-3/4
6 10 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR M Dee · T P Yung 3 7.8 5
7 11 TRAVEL GLORY B H W Lai · Y S Tsui 10 18.0 5
8 4 ORIENTAL SPIRIT B L Currie · D A Hayes 4 29.0 5-1/4
9 7 EAGLE RUN SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 50.0 6
10 3 JACK WIN B/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 11 23.0 7
11 2 GENEROUS FRIEND B-/TT Y L Chung · C H Yip 2 118.0 29-1/4
1 HAPPY GATHERING B2 H Bowman · K L Man 7 7.3

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VIVA A LA2. YOUNG SPARKLE+1L3. THETA HEDGE+1.25L4. JAZZ STEED+3.5L5. SUNSHINE LEGENDARY+3.75L6. CIRCUIT SPLENDOR+5L7. TRAVEL GLORY+5L8. ORIENTAL SPIRIT+5.25L9. EAGLE RUN+6L10. JACK WIN+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick THETA HEDGE (34.3%) finished 3rd — the winner VIVA A LA was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 THETA HEDGE 34.3% 2.91 3
2 5 SUNSHINE LEGENDARY 13.2% 7.58 5
3 3 JACK WIN 9.6% 10.45 10
4 10 CIRCUIT SPLENDOR 8.9% 11.27 6
5 12 VIVA A LA 8.0% 12.53 1
6 8 JAZZ STEED 7.0% 14.23 4
7 9 YOUNG SPARKLE 6.2% 16.04 2
8 11 TRAVEL GLORY 4.6% 21.70 7
9 7 EAGLE RUN 3.4% 29.19 9
10 4 ORIENTAL SPIRIT 3.2% 31.09 8
11 2 GENEROUS FRIEND 1.5% 65.52 11
THETA HEDGESUNSHINE LEGENDARYJACK WINCIRCUIT SPLENDORVIVA A LA — wonJAZZ STEEDYOUNG SPARKLETRAVEL GLORYEAGLE RUNORIENTAL SPIRITGENEROUS FRIEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 42

PLACE

6 17

9 31.5

12 16.5

QUINELLA

9,12 285.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,9 94.5

6,12 35.5

9,12 81.5

FORECAST

12,9 516

TIERCE

12,9,6 2,373

TRIO

6,9,12 323

FIRST 4

6,8,9,12 1,404

QUARTET

12,9,6,8 29,883

All pools (3 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,4/6,9,12 13,317

2ND DOUBLE

2/9 111

2/12 127.5

3 PICK 1

A1 18.5

A2

A3