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Happy Valley · 2023-07-06 · 20:21

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 2200m Course A 11 runners

Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-06 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER HONG KONG, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 3-3/4, with BORN THE SAME DAY second and MANAGEMENT FOLKS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.16.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT 2.16.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 3 3.8 3-3/4
2 9 BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/XB M Dee · C W Chang 11 17.0 3-3/4
3 4 MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall 9 4.6 5
4 6 NICE BIRDIE Led early B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 8 19.0 5
5 7 HAPPY ANGEL B C Y Ho · P C Ng 4 4.2 5-1/2
6 1 FLYING SILVER CP/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 7 49.0 7-1/4
7 2 KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 10 8.7 8-3/4
8 10 EL VALIENTE TT L Currie · C Fownes 5 52.0 9
9 5 REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT A Badel · P F Yiu 6 13.0 12-1/2
10 8 TELECOM CHEETAH B/XB/TT H Bentley · C H Yip 1 9.5 15-3/4
11 11 CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 2 18.0 15-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER HONG KONG2. BORN THE SAME DAY+3.75L3. MANAGEMENT FOLKS+5L4. NICE BIRDIE+5L5. HAPPY ANGEL+5.5L6. FLYING SILVER+7.25L7. KOWLOON GREAT+8.75L8. EL VALIENTE+9L9. REACH GOAL+12.5L10. TELECOM CHEETAH+15.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick MANAGEMENT FOLKS (19.2%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER HONG KONG was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MANAGEMENT FOLKS 19.2% 5.22 3
2 7 HAPPY ANGEL 18.9% 5.30 5
3 3 SUPER HONG KONG 11.4% 8.75 1
4 6 NICE BIRDIE 10.3% 9.72 4
5 5 REACH GOAL 9.8% 10.24 9
6 2 KOWLOON GREAT 7.1% 14.11 7
7 11 CIRCUIT ELITE 5.6% 17.81 11
8 10 EL VALIENTE 5.5% 18.33 8
9 1 FLYING SILVER 4.6% 21.82 6
10 8 TELECOM CHEETAH 3.9% 25.66 10
11 9 BORN THE SAME DAY 3.9% 25.94 2
MANAGEMENT FOLKSHAPPY ANGELSUPER HONG KONG — wonNICE BIRDIEREACH GOALKOWLOON GREATCIRCUIT ELITEEL VALIENTEFLYING SILVERTELECOM CHEETAHBORN THE SAME DAY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 38

PLACE

3 16.5

4 17

9 47.5

QUINELLA

3,9 403.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 37.5

3,9 129.5

4,9 173.5

FORECAST

3,9 583

TIERCE

3,9,4 2,561

TRIO

3,4,9 444

FIRST 4

3,4,6,9 1,669

QUARTET

3,9,4,6 32,966

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 20

3RD DOUBLE

12/3 174

12/9 156