Happy Valley · 2023-07-06 · 20:21
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0 | BORN THE SAME DAY Closed strongly H/XB M Dee · C W Chang | M Dee | C W Chang | 11 | 17.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 3 | 0 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS Closed strongly Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 9 | 4.6 | 5 |
| 4 | 0 | NICE BIRDIE Led early B/TT C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 8 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | HAPPY ANGEL B C Y Ho · P C Ng | C Y Ho | P C Ng | 4 | 4.2 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | FLYING SILVER CP/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum | Y L Chung | C S Shum | 7 | 49.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | KOWLOON GREAT Closed strongly CP/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 10 | 8.7 | 8-3/4 |
| 8 | 0 | EL VALIENTE TT L Currie · C Fownes | L Currie | C Fownes | 5 | 52.0 | 9 |
| 9 | 0 | REACH GOAL Closed strongly TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 6 | 13.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | TELECOM CHEETAH B/XB/TT H Bentley · C H Yip | H Bentley | C H Yip | 1 | 9.5 | 15-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | CIRCUIT ELITE B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 2 | 18.0 | 15-3/4 |
| — | 0 | SUPER HONG KONG Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | — | 3.8 | 3-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-06 was Class 4 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. BORN THE SAME DAY, ridden by M Dee and trained by C W Chang, won by 3-3/4, with MANAGEMENT FOLKS second and NICE BIRDIE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite SUPER HONG KONG did not finish.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | MANAGEMENT FOLKS | 19.2% | 5.22 | 3 |
| 2 | 0 | HAPPY ANGEL | 18.9% | 5.30 | 5 |
| 3 | 0 | SUPER HONG KONG | 11.4% | 8.75 | — |
| 4 | 0 | NICE BIRDIE | 10.3% | 9.72 | 4 |
| 5 | 0 | REACH GOAL | 9.8% | 10.24 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | KOWLOON GREAT | 7.1% | 14.11 | 7 |
| 7 | 0 | CIRCUIT ELITE | 5.6% | 17.81 | 11 |
| 8 | 0 | EL VALIENTE | 5.5% | 18.33 | 8 |
| 9 | 0 | FLYING SILVER | 4.6% | 21.82 | 6 |
| 10 | 0 | TELECOM CHEETAH | 3.9% | 25.66 | 10 |
| 11 | 0 | BORN THE SAME DAY | 3.9% | 25.94 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 38
PLACE
3 16.5
4 17
9 47.5
QUINELLA
3,9 403.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 37.5
3,9 129.5
4,9 173.5
FORECAST
3,9 583
TIERCE
3,9,4 2,561
TRIO
3,4,9 444
FIRST 4
3,4,6,9 1,669
QUARTET
3,9,4,6 32,966
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 20
3RD DOUBLE
12/3 174
12/9 156