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Happy Valley · 2023-07-06 · 21:56

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-06 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. WATCH BUDDY, ridden by A Badel and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with JUNEAU FLASH second and MELBOURNE HALL third. The 3.3 favourite LUCKY GOR finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.10.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 WATCH BUDDY CP1 1.10.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P F Yiu 1 3.8 N
2 2 JUNEAU FLASH P K Teetan · J Size 9 8.6 N
3 8 MELBOURNE HALL B/XB Y L Chung · D J Hall 5 15.0 1/2
4 5 HARMONY N HOME L Hewitson · C S Shum 2 6.3 1-3/4
5 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL CP/XB H Bowman · F C Lor 10 22.0 2-1/4
6 9 ISLAND SURPRISE B/TT K C Leung · K L Man 8 13.0 3-1/4
7 11 MY INTELLIGENT V2/TT H T Mo · L Ho 12 33.0 3-1/2
8 1 LUCKY GOR B/E/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 4 3.3 3-3/4
9 12 OUR CLASS ACT H H Bentley · A T Millard 7 22.0 4
10 7 H Z TOURBILLON TT C L Chau · T P Yung 6 18.0 5-3/4
11 4 THE EQUALIZER XB1/TT- H W Lai · K W Lui 11 101.0 6
12 10 BABY B/TT A Hamelin · K H Ting 3 16.0 17-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. WATCH BUDDY2. JUNEAU FLASH+0.05L3. MELBOURNE HALL+0.5L4. HARMONY N HOME+1.75L5. LUCKY ARCHANGEL+2.25L6. ISLAND SURPRISE+3.25L7. MY INTELLIGENT+3.5L8. LUCKY GOR+3.75L9. OUR CLASS ACT+4L10. H Z TOURBILLON+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick HARMONY N HOME (22.1%) finished 4th — the winner WATCH BUDDY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 HARMONY N HOME 22.1% 4.53 4
2 6 WATCH BUDDY 14.6% 6.87 1
3 2 JUNEAU FLASH 13.7% 7.32 2
4 8 MELBOURNE HALL 9.7% 10.32 3
5 1 LUCKY GOR 9.0% 11.11 8
6 9 ISLAND SURPRISE 7.1% 14.16 6
7 12 OUR CLASS ACT 5.7% 17.41 9
8 10 BABY 5.5% 18.27 12
9 3 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 4.8% 20.76 5
10 7 H Z TOURBILLON 4.3% 23.38 10
11 11 MY INTELLIGENT 2.6% 38.95 7
12 4 THE EQUALIZER 1.1% 94.23 11
HARMONY N HOMEWATCH BUDDY — wonJUNEAU FLASHMELBOURNE HALLLUCKY GORISLAND SURPRISEOUR CLASS ACTBABYLUCKY ARCHANGELH Z TOURBILLONMY INTELLIGENTTHE EQUALIZER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 38.5

PLACE

2 27

6 17

8 39.5

QUINELLA

2,6 179

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 66

2,8 121.5

6,8 102.5

FORECAST

6,2 337

TIERCE

6,2,8 1,915

TRIO

2,6,8 504

FIRST 4

2,5,6,8 614

QUARTET

6,2,8,5 10,008

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 18

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,6,7/2,6,8 65,155

6TH DOUBLE

6/2 49

6/6 129.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

4,6,8/2,6,7/Any Combination 118,149