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Happy Valley · 2023-07-06 · 20:55

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course A 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2023-07-06 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. D STAR, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by 2-1/4, with STRONGEST BOY second and PALACE PAL third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite BEAU GOSSE finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.40.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 D STAR Closed strongly B/H/TT 1.40.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz 5 4.8 2-1/4
2 8 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes 7 12.0 2-1/4
3 6 PALACE PAL Closed strongly M F Poon · D J Hall 12 26.0 2-1/2
4 11 SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT M Dee · C H Yip 6 13.0 3
5 1 MASTER TORNADO B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 8 20.0 4-1/2
6 2 SKYEY SUPREME Led early B/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui 11 41.0 5-1/2
7 9 TO INFINITY Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · J Richards 2 10.0 5-3/4
8 3 SUPER BABY CP- B Avdulla · P F Yiu 1 49.0 6-1/4
9 10 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man 10 32.0 8-1/2
10 12 UNITED ENDEAVORS H H Bentley · L Ho 9 8.3 9-3/4
11 7 BEAU GOSSE H/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 2.2 10
12 5 LUCKY BANNER H/TT L Currie · C Fownes 4 34.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. D STAR2. STRONGEST BOY+2.25L3. PALACE PAL+2.5L4. SUPERB MOVE+3L5. MASTER TORNADO+4.5L6. SKYEY SUPREME+5.5L7. TO INFINITY+5.75L8. SUPER BABY+6.25L9. KUNGFUMASTER PANDA+8.5L10. UNITED ENDEAVORS+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2022-23
The model's top pick TO INFINITY (20.9%) finished 7th — the winner D STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 TO INFINITY 20.9% 4.79 7
2 7 BEAU GOSSE 17.7% 5.64 11
3 4 D STAR 10.0% 10.03 1
4 8 STRONGEST BOY 9.3% 10.71 2
5 6 PALACE PAL 7.8% 12.82 3
6 1 MASTER TORNADO 7.7% 13.02 5
7 11 SUPERB MOVE 6.9% 14.54 4
8 2 SKYEY SUPREME 5.9% 17.07 6
9 12 UNITED ENDEAVORS 5.1% 19.42 10
10 3 SUPER BABY 3.2% 30.92 8
11 5 LUCKY BANNER 2.9% 34.74 12
12 10 KUNGFUMASTER PANDA 2.6% 38.51 9
TO INFINITYBEAU GOSSED STAR — wonSTRONGEST BOYPALACE PALMASTER TORNADOSUPERB MOVESKYEY SUPREMEUNITED ENDEAVORSSUPER BABYLUCKY BANNERKUNGFUMASTER PANDA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 48.5

PLACE

4 18.5

6 53

8 32.5

QUINELLA

4,8 216

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 166.5

4,8 72

6,8 306.5

FORECAST

4,8 408

TIERCE

4,8,6 4,388

TRIO

4,6,8 1,285

FIRST 4

4,6,8,11 2,456

QUARTET

4,8,6,11 38,055

All pools (4 more)

1ST TREBLE

12/3/4 1,798

12/3/8 699

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,9/4,6,8 314,310

3 PICK 1

A1

A2 28.5

A3

4TH DOUBLE

3/4 334

3/8 124