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Happy Valley · 2023-09-20 · 11:17

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1800m Course B 6 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-20 was Class 5 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. CLASSIC ARCHI, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1/2, with FIERY FLYING second and HAPPY JAI JAI third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite HAPPY JAI JAI finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.49.42
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 CLASSIC ARCHI Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.42 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Whyte 1 3.1 1/2
2 4 FIERY FLYING Closed strongly H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 4.3 1/2
3 2 HAPPY JAI JAI TT Z Purton · T P Yung 2 3.0 2
4 1 LOYAL AMBITION Led early TT Y L Chung · C Fownes 6 6.8 3-3/4
5 7 HANG'S CHOICE B/TT M Chadwick · W Y So 3 11.0 7-1/2
6 5 SUPER BUDDY B A Atzeni · Y S Tsui 5 10.0 10-3/4
6 GREEN LASER L Hewitson · W Y So

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CLASSIC ARCHI2. FIERY FLYING+0.5L3. HAPPY JAI JAI+2L4. LOYAL AMBITION+3.75L5. HANG'S CHOICE+7.5L6. SUPER BUDDY+10.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CLASSIC ARCHI (29.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 CLASSIC ARCHI 29.8% 3.36 1
2 2 HAPPY JAI JAI 23.4% 4.27 3
3 4 FIERY FLYING 15.0% 6.68 2
4 1 LOYAL AMBITION 14.1% 7.10 4
5 5 SUPER BUDDY 9.4% 10.68 6
6 7 HANG'S CHOICE 8.4% 11.96 5
CLASSIC ARCHI — wonHAPPY JAI JAIFIERY FLYINGLOYAL AMBITIONSUPER BUDDYHANG'S CHOICE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 31

PLACE

2 13.5

3 12.5

4 15.5

QUINELLA

3,4 58.5

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FORECAST

3,4 113

TIERCE

3,4,2 239

TRIO

2,3,4 58

FIRST 4

1,2,3,4 29

QUARTET

3,4,2,1 431