Happy Valley · 2023-09-20 · 12:47
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-20 was Class 5 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. TRONIC MIGHTY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by J Richards, won by 1-1/4, with HAPPILY FRIENDS second and CIRCUIT SPLENDOR third. The 2.7 favourite VIVA A LA finished 7th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | TRONIC MIGHTY V/XB/TT 0.57.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 8 | 4.5 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | HAPPILY FRIENDS V M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 5 | 19.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 10 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 24.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | MULTIMORE TT H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 10 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 5 | HAPPY HORSE H/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 11 | 50.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 1 | CHARMING STEED H1/B2/TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 2 | 6.7 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | VIVA A LA P/TT A Badel · K L Man | A Badel | K L Man | 1 | 2.7 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 2 | DIAMOND SOARS H-/P-/TT K De Melo · P F Yiu | K De Melo | P F Yiu | 6 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | DASHING TRIUMPH TT A Atzeni · Y S Tsui | A Atzeni | Y S Tsui | 12 | 89.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | HAR HAR AT HEART E B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 3 | 11.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 12 | NOIR RIDER B/XB1 K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 7 | 10.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 4 | CRAIG'S MASTER CP/H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 4 | 57.0 | 9-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | VIVA A LA | 30.0% | 3.33 | 7 |
| 2 | 9 | TRONIC MIGHTY | 15.0% | 6.66 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | CHARMING STEED | 12.6% | 7.91 | 6 |
| 4 | 12 | NOIR RIDER | 9.3% | 10.75 | 11 |
| 5 | 2 | DIAMOND SOARS | 7.4% | 13.60 | 8 |
| 6 | 3 | MULTIMORE | 6.8% | 14.74 | 4 |
| 7 | 10 | CIRCUIT SPLENDOR | 5.3% | 18.93 | 3 |
| 8 | 4 | CRAIG'S MASTER | 3.7% | 26.87 | 12 |
| 9 | 7 | HAR HAR AT HEART | 3.6% | 27.65 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | HAPPILY FRIENDS | 2.4% | 41.85 | 2 |
| 11 | 5 | HAPPY HORSE | 2.3% | 42.91 | 5 |
| 12 | 6 | DASHING TRIUMPH | 1.5% | 65.31 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 45
PLACE
8 41
9 17.5
10 54
QUINELLA
8,9 386.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,9 136.5
8,10 377
9,10 125.5
FORECAST
9,8 616
TIERCE
9,8,10 5,464
TRIO
8,9,10 1,286
FIRST 4
3,8,9,10 2,908
QUARTET
9,8,10,3 49,254
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
3,5,7/8,9,10 11,075
3RD DOUBLE
5/8 88.5
5/9 170