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Happy Valley · 2023-09-20 · 13:48

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 10 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-20 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RISING FROM ASHES, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by K W Lui, won by 2-1/4, with CAPITAL LEGEND second and STAR CONTACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.40.23
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly B/TT 1.40.23 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · K W Lui 1 4.0 2-1/4
2 6 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · C Fownes 8 23.0 2-1/4
3 7 STAR CONTACT CP/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 2 5.1 2-1/2
4 4 MALDIVES Closed strongly XB B Avdulla · D J Hall 6 12.0 2-1/2
5 3 VIVA HUNTER Led early TT A Badel · K L Man 3 8.4 2-3/4
6 8 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly H/SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 5 11.0 2-3/4
7 1 WINNING DRAGON H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 10 7.7 3-1/4
8 5 JUMBO FORTUNE Closed strongly XB/PC1 L Ferraris · P C Ng 7 14.0 3-3/4
9 10 DARCI JOY Closed strongly B/TT H T Mo · P F Yiu 9 37.0 4
10 9 UP AND UP B1/TT K Teetan · C S Shum 4 4.7 7

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RISING FROM ASHES2. CAPITAL LEGEND+2.25L3. STAR CONTACT+2.5L4. MALDIVES+2.5L5. VIVA HUNTER+2.75L6. IVY LEAGUE+2.75L7. WINNING DRAGON+3.25L8. JUMBO FORTUNE+3.75L9. DARCI JOY+4L10. UP AND UP+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick STAR CONTACT (27.6%) finished 3rd — the winner RISING FROM ASHES was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 STAR CONTACT 27.6% 3.62 3
2 8 IVY LEAGUE 15.8% 6.33 6
3 5 JUMBO FORTUNE 12.3% 8.14 8
4 1 WINNING DRAGON 11.3% 8.88 7
5 9 UP AND UP 7.8% 12.83 10
6 2 RISING FROM ASHES 5.9% 16.90 1
7 4 MALDIVES 5.6% 17.72 4
8 3 VIVA HUNTER 5.0% 19.96 5
9 10 DARCI JOY 5.0% 20.04 9
10 6 CAPITAL LEGEND 3.7% 27.12 2
STAR CONTACTIVY LEAGUEJUMBO FORTUNEWINNING DRAGONUP AND UPRISING FROM ASHES — wonMALDIVESVIVA HUNTERDARCI JOYCAPITAL LEGEND

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 40

PLACE

2 19.5

6 55

7 18.5

QUINELLA

2,6 574.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,6 174.5

2,7 48

6,7 172

FORECAST

2,6 807

TIERCE

2,6,7 5,284

TRIO

2,6,7 802

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 1,804

QUARTET

2,6,7,4 38,542

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,8/2,6,7 646,201

5TH DOUBLE

1/2 3,879.5

1/6 1,016.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

8,9,10/1,3,8/Any Combination 205,548