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Happy Valley · 2023-09-20 · 11:46

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-20 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SAVVY CHIC, ridden by H Bowman and trained by F C Lor, won by 1/2, with JOY OF SPRING second and WOOD ON FIRE third. The 4.7 favourite COLONEL finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.09.60
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SAVVY CHIC TT 1.09.60 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · F C Lor 8 6.6 1/2
2 3 JOY OF SPRING TT1 B Avdulla · C Fownes 2 15.0 1/2
3 4 WOOD ON FIRE H/TT K Teetan · C W Chang 1 5.0 1/2
4 6 COLONEL V Y L Chung · P F Yiu 4 4.7 3/4
5 7 DIAMOND DIAMOND B C L Chau · T P Yung 3 27.0 1-1/4
6 10 YOUNG HORIZON M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 23.0 2-3/4
7 9 DAILY TROPHY H1/PC1/TT L Currie · C Fownes 6 76.0 3-1/4
8 11 MR MAJESTIC CP/SR/TT L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 14.0 3-1/4
9 2 HERO STAR XB/TT A Badel · K L Man 5 15.0 3-3/4
10 8 STOICISM B/TT K C Leung · M Newnham 10 5.5 5
11 5 STORMTROUPER XB Z Purton · C H Yip 9 5.6 19-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAVVY CHIC2. JOY OF SPRING+0.5L3. WOOD ON FIRE+0.5L4. COLONEL+0.75L5. DIAMOND DIAMOND+1.25L6. YOUNG HORIZON+2.75L7. DAILY TROPHY+3.25L8. MR MAJESTIC+3.25L9. HERO STAR+3.75L10. STOICISM+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick COLONEL (22.2%) finished 4th — the winner SAVVY CHIC was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 COLONEL 22.2% 4.50 4
2 1 SAVVY CHIC 17.9% 5.59 1
3 5 STORMTROUPER 15.9% 6.30 11
4 10 YOUNG HORIZON 8.5% 11.80 6
5 4 WOOD ON FIRE 8.4% 11.92 3
6 11 MR MAJESTIC 7.9% 12.64 8
7 2 HERO STAR 6.4% 15.58 9
8 8 STOICISM 5.3% 18.86 10
9 3 JOY OF SPRING 3.6% 28.10 2
10 7 DIAMOND DIAMOND 2.4% 41.39 5
11 9 DAILY TROPHY 1.5% 65.36 7
COLONELSAVVY CHIC — wonSTORMTROUPERYOUNG HORIZONWOOD ON FIREMR MAJESTICHERO STARSTOICISMJOY OF SPRINGDIAMOND DIAMONDDAILY TROPHY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 66

PLACE

1 28.5

3 49

4 19.5

QUINELLA

1,3 666.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 203

1,4 66

3,4 128

FORECAST

1,3 1,368

TIERCE

1,3,4 5,718

TRIO

1,3,4 823

FIRST 4

1,3,4,6 608

QUARTET

1,3,4,6 19,895

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/1 150.5

3/3 55

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,3,4,6/1,3,4 3,508