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Happy Valley · 2023-09-20 · 12:16

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 6 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-20 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. JUNE PLANET, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 3/4, with PRINCE ALEX second and DRAGON STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.2 favourite DRAGON STAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.39.86
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 JUNE PLANET Closed strongly V-/TT 1.39.86 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 6 3.8 3/4
2 3 PRINCE ALEX Closed strongly XB/SR2/TT A Atzeni · D J Whyte 4 7.1 3/4
3 7 DRAGON STAR Led early B/XB Y L Chung · P C Ng 1 2.2 3/4
4 1 OWNERS' PRAISE CP H Bentley · W Y So 2 5.1 1-1/2
5 2 FLYING SILVER CP/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 3 8.7 2-1/4
6 6 RELIABLE PROFIT B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 5 22.0 2-1/2
4 SATIRICAL GLORY L Hewitson · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUNE PLANET2. PRINCE ALEX+0.75L3. DRAGON STAR+0.75L4. OWNERS' PRAISE+1.5L5. FLYING SILVER+2.25L6. RELIABLE PROFIT+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DRAGON STAR (22.0%) finished 3rd — the winner JUNE PLANET was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 DRAGON STAR 22.0% 4.54 3
2 3 PRINCE ALEX 21.9% 4.56 2
3 2 FLYING SILVER 18.3% 5.48 5
4 1 OWNERS' PRAISE 18.2% 5.51 4
5 5 JUNE PLANET 17.7% 5.66 1
6 6 RELIABLE PROFIT 2.0% 51.10 6
DRAGON STARPRINCE ALEXFLYING SILVEROWNERS' PRAISEJUNE PLANET — wonRELIABLE PROFIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 38

PLACE

3 34

5 19

QUINELLA

3,5 104.5

-

FORECAST

5,3 190

TIERCE

5,3,7 424

TRIO

3,5,7 55

FIRST 4

1,3,5,7 34

QUARTET

5,3,7,1 1,191

2ND DOUBLE

1/3 111.5

1/5 232.5