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Happy Valley · 2023-09-20 · 14:19

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2023-09-20 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. DANCING CODE, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with BEAUTY GLORY second and ALLGREEKTOME third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.50
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 DANCING CODE PC-/B1/TT 1.09.50 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 3.9 N
2 10 BEAUTY GLORY H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 11 21.0 N
3 7 ALLGREEKTOME TT L Ferraris · D A Hayes 2 4.4 1/2
4 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B H T Mo · K W Lui 6 58.0 1-1/2
5 3 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 6.8 1-3/4
6 2 SOLID IMPACT B Z Purton · D J Hall 8 4.9 2
7 8 MAGIC PHOENIX TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 15.0 3-1/2
8 6 RATTAN KINGDOM B/XB/TT K Teetan · J Richards 4 13.0 4
9 5 KEEP YOU WARM XB-/B H Bowman · M Newnham 1 9.0 4-1/4
10 9 E UNIVERSE TT Y L Chung · K L Man 10 35.0 4-1/2
11 4 TORONADO PHANTOM TT A Badel · J Size 5 24.0 6

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DANCING CODE2. BEAUTY GLORY+0.05L3. ALLGREEKTOME+0.5L4. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+1.5L5. MAJESTIC KNIGHT+1.75L6. SOLID IMPACT+2L7. MAGIC PHOENIX+3.5L8. RATTAN KINGDOM+4L9. KEEP YOU WARM+4.25L10. E UNIVERSE+4.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick DANCING CODE (25.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 DANCING CODE 25.9% 3.86 1
2 7 ALLGREEKTOME 16.9% 5.91 3
3 2 SOLID IMPACT 13.3% 7.50 6
4 3 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 12.6% 7.97 5
5 6 RATTAN KINGDOM 6.3% 15.90 8
6 4 TORONADO PHANTOM 5.5% 18.11 11
7 8 MAGIC PHOENIX 5.2% 19.05 7
8 5 KEEP YOU WARM 4.3% 23.38 9
9 9 E UNIVERSE 3.9% 25.81 10
10 10 BEAUTY GLORY 3.5% 28.58 2
11 11 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 2.6% 39.02 4
DANCING CODE — wonALLGREEKTOMESOLID IMPACTMAJESTIC KNIGHTRATTAN KINGDOMTORONADO PHANTOMMAGIC PHOENIXKEEP YOU WARME UNIVERSEBEAUTY GLORYHIGH RISE SOLDIER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 39

PLACE

1 18

7 15

10 51

QUINELLA

1,10 454

QUINELLA PLACE

1,7 43.5

1,10 141.5

7,10 147

FORECAST

1,10 634

TIERCE

1,10,7 3,680

TRIO

1,7,10 546

FIRST 4

1,7,10,11 3,987

QUARTET

1,10,7,11 76,642

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

2/1 301

2/10 304