Happy Valley · 2023-10-04 · 11:50
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-04 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. MY INTELLIGENT, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with MIRACLES second and VAMOS third. The 3.3 favourite VAMOS finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | MY INTELLIGENT V/TT 1.09.41 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W Y So | M Chadwick | W Y So | 2 | 9.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | MIRACLES B Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 1 | 3.5 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 3 | VAMOS H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 3 | 3.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | VALHALLA XB/TT K De Melo · C Fownes | K De Melo | C Fownes | 7 | 6.5 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | FINGERS CROSSED H-/B/TT B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 9 | 51.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 6 | 7 | OUR CLASS ACT H/TT1 K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 6 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 7 | 4 | EASY TWO B/H/TT K C Leung · K H Ting | K C Leung | K H Ting | 11 | 52.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | HAPPY MATADOR B/XB H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 5 | 90.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 9 | PEAK TO PEAK V-/H1/TT C Y Ho · D A Hayes | C Y Ho | D A Hayes | 10 | 20.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 10 | 6 | DRAGON KINGDOM Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 8 | 28.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 5 | FIGHTING STAR B A Badel · C H Yip | A Badel | C H Yip | 4 | 8.1 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | DAY DAY RICH B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 12 | 49.0 | 11-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | MIRACLES | 36.3% | 2.76 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | VAMOS | 26.2% | 3.82 | 3 |
| 3 | 10 | VALHALLA | 7.5% | 13.33 | 4 |
| 4 | 5 | FIGHTING STAR | 5.6% | 17.74 | 11 |
| 5 | 9 | PEAK TO PEAK | 4.9% | 20.27 | 9 |
| 6 | 7 | OUR CLASS ACT | 4.8% | 20.87 | 6 |
| 7 | 6 | DRAGON KINGDOM | 4.0% | 24.98 | 10 |
| 8 | 2 | MY INTELLIGENT | 3.7% | 27.24 | 1 |
| 9 | 11 | DAY DAY RICH | 2.9% | 34.54 | 12 |
| 10 | 1 | FINGERS CROSSED | 1.7% | 59.60 | 5 |
| 11 | 4 | EASY TWO | 1.3% | 77.80 | 7 |
| 12 | 12 | HAPPY MATADOR | 1.1% | 89.27 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 99
PLACE
2 30.5
3 14
8 14.5
QUINELLA
2,8 162
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 59.5
2,8 58
3,8 26.5
FORECAST
2,8 446
TIERCE
2,8,3 1,305
TRIO
2,3,8 165
FIRST 4
2,3,8,10 196
QUARTET
2,8,3,10 7,132
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
7/2 1,168.5
7/8 90.5
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,7,8/2,3,8 17,608