Happy Valley · 2023-10-04 · 12:18
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-04 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HEROIC MASTER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with MAJESTIC KNIGHT second and HUMBLE STAR third. The 2.7 favourite HUMBLE STAR finished 3rd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | HEROIC MASTER CP/TT 0.56.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor | K Teetan | F C Lor | 4 | 9.5 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 3 | MAJESTIC KNIGHT B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 5.4 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 6 | HUMBLE STAR SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng | Z Purton | P C Ng | 5 | 2.7 | 1 |
| 4 | 2 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 1 | 5.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes | K C Leung | D A Hayes | 6 | 5.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 5 | KYRUS DRAGON XB1 K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 2 | 67.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 8 | AMAZING ROCKY Y L Chung · T P Yung | Y L Chung | T P Yung | 3 | 39.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 8 | 9 | SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 7 | 37.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 7 | SPORTS LEGEND CP1/TT1 C Y Ho · J Richards | C Y Ho | J Richards | 8 | 10.0 | 9 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | HUMBLE STAR | 22.9% | 4.36 | 3 |
| 2 | 4 | HEROIC MASTER | 18.8% | 5.32 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | EXPLOSIVE WITNESS | 15.7% | 6.36 | 4 |
| 4 | 3 | MAJESTIC KNIGHT | 15.3% | 6.51 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | HARMONY N BLESSED | 9.6% | 10.46 | 5 |
| 6 | 7 | SPORTS LEGEND | 7.7% | 12.96 | 9 |
| 7 | 5 | KYRUS DRAGON | 4.1% | 24.52 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | SUPER AXIOM | 3.1% | 32.19 | 8 |
| 9 | 8 | AMAZING ROCKY | 2.7% | 37.11 | 7 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 95.5
PLACE
3 18.5
4 22.5
6 11.5
QUINELLA
3,4 219
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 66.5
3,6 31.5
4,6 41
FORECAST
4,3 549
TIERCE
4,3,6 1,780
TRIO
3,4,6 198
FIRST 4
2,3,4,6 120
QUARTET
4,3,6,2 5,683
All pools (1 more)
2ND DOUBLE
2/3 146.5
2/4 884.5