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Happy Valley · 2023-10-04 · 12:18

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1000m Course C+3 9 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-04 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. HEROIC MASTER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by F C Lor, won by 3/4, with MAJESTIC KNIGHT second and HUMBLE STAR third. The 2.7 favourite HUMBLE STAR finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.56.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 HEROIC MASTER CP/TT 0.56.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · F C Lor 4 9.5 3/4
2 3 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 5.4 3/4
3 6 HUMBLE STAR SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 5 2.7 1
4 2 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS SR/XB H Bowman · C Fownes 1 5.1 1-3/4
5 1 HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 6 5.0 3-3/4
6 5 KYRUS DRAGON XB1 K De Melo · D J Hall 2 67.0 3-3/4
7 8 AMAZING ROCKY Y L Chung · T P Yung 3 39.0 7-1/4
8 9 SUPER AXIOM H/P/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 37.0 8
9 7 SPORTS LEGEND CP1/TT1 C Y Ho · J Richards 8 10.0 9

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HEROIC MASTER2. MAJESTIC KNIGHT+0.75L3. HUMBLE STAR+1L4. EXPLOSIVE WITNESS+1.75L5. HARMONY N BLESSED+3.75L6. KYRUS DRAGON+3.75L7. AMAZING ROCKY+7.25L8. SUPER AXIOM+8L9. SPORTS LEGEND+9L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick HUMBLE STAR (22.9%) finished 3rd — the winner HEROIC MASTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 HUMBLE STAR 22.9% 4.36 3
2 4 HEROIC MASTER 18.8% 5.32 1
3 2 EXPLOSIVE WITNESS 15.7% 6.36 4
4 3 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 15.3% 6.51 2
5 1 HARMONY N BLESSED 9.6% 10.46 5
6 7 SPORTS LEGEND 7.7% 12.96 9
7 5 KYRUS DRAGON 4.1% 24.52 6
8 9 SUPER AXIOM 3.1% 32.19 8
9 8 AMAZING ROCKY 2.7% 37.11 7
HUMBLE STARHEROIC MASTER — wonEXPLOSIVE WITNESSMAJESTIC KNIGHTHARMONY N BLESSEDSPORTS LEGENDKYRUS DRAGONSUPER AXIOMAMAZING ROCKY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 95.5

PLACE

3 18.5

4 22.5

6 11.5

QUINELLA

3,4 219

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 66.5

3,6 31.5

4,6 41

FORECAST

4,3 549

TIERCE

4,3,6 1,780

TRIO

3,4,6 198

FIRST 4

2,3,4,6 120

QUARTET

4,3,6,2 5,683

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

2/3 146.5

2/4 884.5