Happy Valley · 2023-10-04 · 13:48
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2023-10-04 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. DENFIELD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with GOLDEN LINK second and HIGH PERCENTAGE third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DENFIELD TT 1.09.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 9 | 1.6 | N |
| 2 | 5 | GOLDEN LINK K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 6 | 5.9 | N |
| 3 | 7 | HIGH PERCENTAGE TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 4 | 10.0 | N |
| 4 | 10 | FLAMING EAGLE V-/PC2/TT K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 5 | 12.0 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 12 | SPEEDSTAR B K De Melo · D J Hall | K De Melo | D J Hall | 8 | 19.0 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 2 | LESLIE B A Hamelin · C W Chang | A Hamelin | C W Chang | 12 | 41.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 7 | 3 | PRIME MORTAR CP/XB/TT M Chadwick · K H Ting | M Chadwick | K H Ting | 7 | 28.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | HEARTY WISH B/SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 11 | 33.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 4 | COMPASSION SUPER XB/TT H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 10 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 10 | 9 | UNITED WARRIORS XB C L Chau · K W Lui | C L Chau | K W Lui | 1 | 30.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 11 | AUGUST MOON V/TT A Atzeni · J Richards | A Atzeni | J Richards | 3 | 70.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 12 | 6 | NINJA DERBY H1/XB1 L Currie · D A Hayes | L Currie | D A Hayes | 2 | 99.0 | 10-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DENFIELD | 41.4% | 2.42 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | FLAMING EAGLE | 9.6% | 10.45 | 4 |
| 3 | 7 | HIGH PERCENTAGE | 8.4% | 11.88 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | COMPASSION SUPER | 8.1% | 12.37 | 9 |
| 5 | 8 | HEARTY WISH | 7.9% | 12.58 | 8 |
| 6 | 12 | SPEEDSTAR | 7.0% | 14.24 | 5 |
| 7 | 5 | GOLDEN LINK | 5.5% | 18.29 | 2 |
| 8 | 3 | PRIME MORTAR | 4.3% | 23.12 | 7 |
| 9 | 2 | LESLIE | 3.2% | 30.96 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | AUGUST MOON | 2.5% | 40.77 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | UNITED WARRIORS | 1.6% | 61.90 | 10 |
| 12 | 6 | NINJA DERBY | 0.5% | 201.76 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 16.5
PLACE
1 10.5
5 19
7 24
QUINELLA
1,5 55.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 26.5
1,7 32.5
5,7 66
FORECAST
1,5 84
TIERCE
1,5,7 301
TRIO
1,5,7 121
FIRST 4
1,5,7,10 188
QUARTET
1,5,7,10 1,358
All pools (4 more)
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
1,5,7/1,5,7 69,486
5TH DOUBLE
5/1 224.5
5/5 72.5
7/1 143.5
7/5 95.5
TRIPLE TRIO
2,8,11/1,5,7/1,5,7 1,096,846
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
2,8,11/1,5,7/Any Combination 21,936